For the past 78 years, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has released a revised Doomsday Clock every year, indicating how near or far humanity is from self-destruction.

The latest update to the Clock will be unveiled on Tuesday, Jan. 28 at 10 a.m. EST during a live webcast, which will keep its content secret until that moment.

This clock is a symbolic representation of how close humankind is to obliteration, according to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, who have managed it since its inception in 1947. This organization was established two years earlier by University of Chicago scientists who played a pivotal role in the development of the first nuclear arms as part of the Manhattan Project.

Traditionally, the alarm clock assessed the threat of nuclear catastrophe. In recent years, it has expanded to incorporate three additional issues of concern: climate change, artificial intelligence, and the spread of misinformation.

Every year, the Science and Security Board members are posed two fundamental questions:

• Is humanity safer or at a higher risk this year compared to the previous year?
• Is humanity safer or at a higher risk when compared to the last 78 years since the clock was established?

Their responses determine the clock’s setting for the upcoming year.

How did the Doomsday Clock start?

In 1945, on the anniversary of the Pearl Harbor attack, the scientists from the Manhattan Project, creators of the first atomic bombs, began distributing a mimeographed newsletter known as The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

Two years later, reflecting on a world where atomic bombs had been employed in Japan, these scientists convened to examine the existential threat posed by nuclear conflict.

“They were concerned that the public wasn’t truly aware of how close we were to the end of life as we knew it,” remarked Rachel Bronson, the current president and CEO of the Bulletin.

Martyl Langsdorf, an artist and the spouse of Manhattan Project physicist Alexander Langsdorf Jr., originated the concept of a clock to symbolize the looming threat.

This concept came to be known as the Doomsday Clock.

“It evoked the feeling that if we remained inactive, it would keep ticking closer to midnight, leading us toward the apocalypse,” Bronson explained.

Where does the Doomsday Clock stand now?

In 2024, the Doomsday Clock’s guardians indicated that humanity remained perilously close to a global disaster. The symbolic time was set at 90 seconds to midnight, matching the setting from 2023.

Before that, it rested at 100 seconds to midnight, marking the most critical point since the clock’s establishment in 1947.

Who decides where the Doomsday Clock is set?

The setting of the Doomsday Clock is determined annually by the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board, in consultation with its Board of Sponsors, including nine Nobel Prize winners. The board for this year comprises 18 members.

The group reviews extensive materials throughout the year to stay informed about trends and threats. They hold virtual meetings several times and meet in person twice in Chicago, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ headquarters. These sessions involve discussions on new and evolving technologies such as Artificial Intelligence.

The U.S. government, or any other government for that matter, has no role in determining the clock’s time—this task rests solely on scientists and global experts.

What does midnight represent on the Doomsday Clock?

The clock focuses solely on the actions humanity could take to harm itself. For instance, a meteor approaching Earth would not be considered, whereas experimenting with deadly viruses could be.

During the period from the 1950s to the 1980s, the threat of nuclear conflict seemed imminent. Despite appearing less pressing now, the risk still exists, according to Robert Socolow, an environmental scientist, theoretical physicist, and professor emeritus of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering at Princeton University, who serves on the board.

“The nuclear peril is something young people can hardly imagine their grandparents and parents dealt with, but now their prevailing belief is ‘I don’t need to worry about it.’ But they should,” he asserted.

Today’s threats differ from those of the past, primarily when the danger was associated with the Soviet Union, as new non-state entities such as terrorists and countries like North Korea, outside the global framework, may gain access to devastating weapons and pathogens.

“We live amid high-alert situations, with numerous nuclear weapons globally and a strategy that calls for retaliation if attacked,” Socolow explained.

Does the Doomsday Clock always move closer to midnight?

The Doomsday Clock’s setting has fluctuated over the past 78 years, influenced by global events.

The farthest it has ever been from midnight was in 1991, when it stood at 17 minutes to midnight following the first Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty between the U.S. and the Soviet Union and the subsequent breakup of the USSR.

In recent years, it has been more pessimistic, being set at 90 seconds to midnight twice, partly driven by global nuclear and political tensions, COVID-19 impacts, climate change, and the rise of biological threats.

“This time it was due to the emergence of something qualitatively new,” said Socolow. “Putin was explicitly threatening to use nuclear arms [in Ukraine].”

When the first Doomsday Clock was announced in 1947, it was set at a full 7 minutes to midnight.