Historically, surviving an assassination attempt doesn’t typically confer significant political advantages, yet former President Donald Trump is heavily emphasizing his close call as he nears the final phase of his third presidential campaign.

This Saturday, Trump is scheduled to host a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, the site where he was shot in the ear by Thomas Matthew Crooks, who was quickly eliminated by a Secret Service counter-sniper.

The rally is meant to signify a triumphant moment for Trump, the 2024 Republican presidential candidate, representing his resilience and determination. This recalls former President Theodore Roosevelt, who similarly pressed on with a speech after being shot in Milwaukee on October 14, 1912, during his own third-party campaign.

At that time, Roosevelt insisted on delivering his speech despite having a bloodied shirt and what biographer Edmund Morris described as a “dime-sized hole” near his heart. Nonetheless, Roosevelt ultimately lost the election.

No other candidate has incorporated their survival of an assassination attempt into their campaign narrative as prominently as Trump.

Just four days post-incident, Trump addressed the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, asserting he had a singular, traumatic story to share.

However, he has continued to refer to the shooting abundantly.

An analysis by YSL News indicates Trump participated in at least 51 public events following the shooting and mentioned it during 31 of them.

What once seemed too painful for him to discuss has now become central to his campaign, adding to the growing mythos surrounding him that his supporters have embraced.

Imagery from the event — especially the iconic image of Trump raising his fist shortly after being shot, with blood on his face — has become symbolic within the MAGA movement, appearing on items like T-shirts, flags, and even Christmas ornaments.

Trump’s upcoming return to Butler will reinforce the narrative he has constructed surrounding the shooting, its impact on his campaign, and its importance to his supporters.

“President Trump looks forward to returning to Butler, Pennsylvania to honor the victims from that tragic day,” stated Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt to YSL News. “The willingness of Pennsylvanians to join President Trump in his return to Butler represents the strength and resiliency of the American people.”

In Trump’s narrative, the focus is on heroes and valor amidst adversity, while the actual perpetrator has faded from the story, replaced by political adversaries, despite a lack of evidence linking Democratic rhetoric to the shooter’s actions.

Trump has pointed fingers at Democrats for the plots against him, adding to what he claims is unprecedented persecution, which includes various legal cases against him, his impeachments, and investigations into his 2016 campaign’s potential connections with Russia.

How the Shooting Changed the Campaign, Briefly

Crooks fired at Trump on Saturday, July 13, just two days prior to the Republican National Convention set to occur in Wisconsin’s largest city.

Heading into the convention, Trump appeared strong, buoyed by President Joe Biden’s lackluster debate performance in the weeks prior.

Polls indicated Trump was leading Biden in critical swing states, with increasing calls for the 81-year-old president to withdraw from the race.

Surviving an assassination attempt temporarily solidified support for Trump, creating an atmosphere of inevitability around his campaign. Supporters at the convention donned white ear bandages in a show of solidarity with Trump, who delivered his nomination acceptance speech with his ear bandaged.

However, the situation shifted dramatically within a few days.

Biden announced his exit from the race on July 21, allowing Vice President Kamala Harris to rapidly secure the Democratic nomination. She has since been performing much stronger than Biden, and polls now suggest a neck-and-neck race.

Trump’s limited political gains from his brush with death align with historical trends.

John A. Tures, a political science professor at LaGrange College in Georgia, has examined the case of Alabama Governor George Wallace, who also survived an assassination attempt while campaigning for president in 1972.

and survived, emphasized that the idea that surviving an assassination attempt provides a political advantage is a “myth.” He noted that George Wallace secured more victories in the Democratic primaries before the shooting—four states—compared to three states afterward.

“There’s no proof of anything other than a minor increase in poll numbers following any assassination attempt,” Tures stated.

“I don’t see it affecting the election at all”

Similar to Trump, Roosevelt integrated his shooting incident into his campaign strategy, yet it did not yield any benefits.

While campaigning as the Progressive Party’s nominee, Roosevelt referenced the party’s nickname in his speech following the shooting, declaring, “It takes more than that to kill a Bull Moose.”

Roosevelt had left the Republican Party to challenge President William Howard Taft, resulting in a split of the Republican vote and ultimately allowing Democrat Woodrow Wilson to win.

The shooting of Wallace on May 17, 1972, resulted in him using a wheelchair and effectively ended his already unlikely pursuit of the Democratic presidential nomination.

In the past 75 years, three presidents eligible for re-election have survived assassination attempts, yet their political fortunes remained unchanged.

On November 1, 1950, two Puerto Rican nationalists assaulted Blair House, where President Harry Truman was staying during renovations at the White House. One assailant was killed, and the other was detained before they reached the president.

Historians noted that there were discussions regarding whether this attack might bolster Truman’s declining political prospects. Ultimately, it did not have that effect; Truman did not seek re-election in 1952.

According to historian Matthew Dallek, “the assassination attempt did not fundamentally change his political trajectory” as he researches presidential assassination attempts and political violence in the 20th century.

Twenty years later, Gerald Ford became the first sitting president to survive two assassination attempts in September 1975.

Later that year, Ford faced a tough primary challenge from Ronald Reagan. Although he fended off Reagan, he ultimately lost the general election to Democrat Jimmy Carter.

Reagan remains the last sitting president to survive an assassination attempt, which occurred after he addressed a crowd at the Washington Hilton on March 30, 1981.

This incident momentarily seemed to benefit Reagan’s public image. His humorous remark to the surgeons, “I hope you are all Republicans,” likely increased his popularity and helped him gain Congressional support for a significant economic package with tax cuts.

However, this surge in public approval did not translate to favorable electoral outcomes for his party, which faced heavy losses in the 1982 congressional elections during a severe recession. By two years later, the improving economy allowed Reagan to win reelection by a landslide.

Other elements are likely to influence this year’s election as well.

“Elections are fundamentally determined by key factors,” stated David Head, a historian at the University of Central Florida who has researched assassination attempts.

Regarding the assassination attempts on Trump, Head remarked, “I don’t believe they will sway the election in any direction.”

Trump’s campaign strategy

Trump has woven the assassination attempt into a broader narrative for his campaign, and revisiting Butler could reinforce this message.

“I could be enjoying a nice life right now. Nobody would be shooting at me,” Trump remarked during an event in Wisconsin on October 1.

In Michigan, just a few days prior, Trump stated that the only presidents who have faced gunfire are “significant” ones, asserting, “I’ve got a lot of enemies.”

Describing the presidential campaign as a “tough life,” Trump mentioned at a rally in Wisconsin in early September, “It’s not the easiest. You get shot at.”

John Bolton, a former National Security Adviser to Trump who is now a vocal critic, commented that Trump’s reaction to the Butler incident reflects his typical style.

“His response has the signature characteristics of Trump,” Bolton noted.

“What people seem to discuss the most is Trump,” remarked Bolton, adding: “He wants to project an image of being a heroic individual, and while some might see this, in this instance, he is not fabricating it.”

Focused on Power

Barbara Res, who served as the executive vice president at the Trump Organization during the 1980s and 1990s, noted that Trump desires to be perceived as “omnipotent.”

According to Res, Trump’s narrative regarding the shooting is crafted to emphasize his power while also reinforcing his persistent claim that numerous forces are conspiring against him.

“He stands to gain sympathy, demonstrate strength, and showcase how well he handled the situation,” Res explained. “Look at the world: they are targeting Trump.”

Bolton stated that Trump gains more politically by framing the attack as part of a broader conspiracy against him rather than fixating on the individual involved.

Trump frequently tells his supporters that foes are out to get them and that they are targeting him simply because he is an obstacle. He connects the Butler shooting to the overarching notion of a “vast ‘they’ that seeks to undermine him,” Bolton noted.

“This approach has proven effective for Trump always adopting the role of the victim,” Bolton said, adding: “It succeeded at least once in getting him elected president, and it may do so again.”

Since the shooting, Trump hasn’t referred to Crooks in his 51 public appearances as analyzed by YSL News.

The figure of Crooks, 20, remains mysterious. FBI Director Christopher Wray characterized Trump’s would-be assassin as a “loner” who had minimal social interaction, either in person or online. He enjoyed video games and was described as a “keen shooting enthusiast,” according to Wray. Crooks was a registered Republican who contributed $15 to a liberal organization.

Rather than concentrating on Crooks, Trump has instead pointed to the rhetoric used by Democrats.

“I stood in the line of fire for democracy,” Trump remarked in West Palm Beach on July 26, adding: “Maybe I did so because of their inflammatory speech,” hinting at the Democrats.

Support for Trump Grows

A significant number of Trump’s supporters interpret the shooting as part of an ongoing pattern of persecution against him. A return to Butler might represent a pivotal moment for them.

Notable supporters like Lee Greenwood, whose anthem “God Bless the USA” kicks off every Trump rally, and Elon Musk will be present.

Musk expressed his support for Trump on the day of the shooting, sharing a video of Trump rising after being shot, pumping his fist while shouting “fight, fight, fight.”

This image and those words have become iconic, leading the crowd at the Republican National Convention this summer to chant “fight, fight, fight.”

“I find it truly inspiring for Americans to have a candidate who, after being shot, immediately stands up and declares: ‘fight, fight, fight,’” stated Rep. Greg Steube, R-Fla. “It’s heroic. It’s the leadership we desire.”