In September, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters surprised many by opting not to endorse either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump. Union support can significantly impact closely contested elections.
Even though union members represent a small portion of the overall electorate, they can strongly influence outcomes in pivotal states. According to the AFL-CIO, the largest labor federation in the U.S., union workers account for 1 in 5 voters in three crucial battleground states.
Traditionally, labor unions have aligned with the Democratic Party. For the past twenty years, the Teamsters have backed every prominent Democratic presidential nominee.
Which Candidates Have Gained the Teamsters’ Endorsement, or Lacked It?
While the Teamsters chose not to endorse Harris, organizations like the United Auto Workers, the United Steelworkers, and the AFL-CIO have supported the Democratic nominee.
The Teamsters represent over 1 million individuals, including truck drivers, warehouse staff, and police. The AFL-CIO encompasses nearly 13 million workers across its 60 unions.
A Majority of Union Members Align with the Democratic Party
During the 2020 presidential election, 60% of union-affiliated voters supported Biden, according to research from the Center for American Progress.
The research revealed that working-class union voters were more inclined to choose Democratic candidates in 2020 and 2022, compared to 2016 and 2018.
A recent survey by the Pew Research Center indicated that about half of union voters would back Harris if the election were today, while 43% would opt for Trump. Additionally, 6% expressed interest in supporting a third-party candidate.
Paul Clark, a professor at Penn State University, stated that “unions and their members will hold a crucial role in the 2024 election.” In the last two presidential elections, Trump was successful in attracting working-class votes, including union members.
“While nearly 60% of union members and their families voted for the Democratic candidate in 2012, that percentage dropped to 51% in 2016, which was significant enough for Trump’s victory,” Clark noted.
According to the Center for American Progress, three of the seven swing states have a higher union membership compared to the national average. In Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, at least 12% of workers are union members. Biden’s victories in these three swing states were by margins of less than 3%.
What is the Current Union Membership Rate?
Four decades ago, nearly a quarter of the workforce was unionized, but that number has now fallen to just above 10%.
Despite ongoing worker strikes, union membership has consistently declined over the years. From 1983 to 2022, union membership decreased from 20.1% to 10.1%.
“Union density peaked at over 30% during the post-World War II years in the 1950s and 1960s,” said Kent Wong, director of the UCLA Labor Center.
Current labor laws in the U.S. present challenges for workers trying to form unions: More than 25 states have enacted “right to work” laws that complicate the unionization process. These laws ensure that non-union members in unionized workplaces receive representation without having to pay union dues, thereby allowing workers the option to join a union or decline membership.
Approximately 35% of those employed in protective services, such as correction officers, police officers, firefighters, and security personnel, are unionized, marking the highest unionization rates among all professions. Education-related professions follow closely at 33.7%, according to labor statistics.
