Following the landfall of five hurricanes on the mainland U.S., the troubling 2024 hurricane season might still have more in store. With over a month left, meteorologists are keeping an eye on a potential storm brewing in the Caribbean.

Even if no additional storms occur, the preliminary economic losses are significant, with early estimates ranging from $127 billion to $129 billion. This suggests that this season is likely to rank among the most expensive hurricane seasons in recent history.

A comparison of estimated damages caused by hurricanes throughout different periods.

Assessing the impact of hurricanes can be challenging, but following the hectic hurricane season of 2005, losses have been estimated between $175 billion and over $200 billion when adjusted for current inflation rates. Since 1980, the average loss per hurricane has been close to $23 billion, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

“This year has had a significant impact ” stated Jeff Waters, who is in charge of North Atlantic Hurricane Models at Moody’s, a global research organization. “We are certainly reaching a point where this season will be notable due to its total insured losses.”

This disastrous season has seen the formation of 10 hurricanes, among them four major ones and five other named storms. The aftermath has left a trail of destruction across at least eight states.

Over 300 lives have been lost in the United States. In the mountains of North Carolina, search efforts for those missing continue alongside attempts to restore utility services. In Florida, large mounds of debris clutter the streets in affected communities.

Gallagher Re, a worldwide reinsurance broker, has issued a recent preliminary report indicating that the economic losses from the storms Helene and Milton are projected to exceed $100 billion.

Massive damages anticipated in the 2024 hurricane season

Preliminary assessments from Moody’s, Gallagher Re, and CoreLogic, a company specializing in property data and analysis, have highlighted expected insured losses.

Storms have significant impacts, both in terms of human suffering and economic fallout. Here’s a brief overview:

Beryl – After wreaking havoc in the Caribbean and setting records as the earliest Category 4 and 5 hurricane, Beryl struck Matagorda, Texas, on July 8 with winds reaching 80 mph. The storm’s remnants caused over 60 tornadoes and heavy rainfall across the Northeast, resulting in at least 38 fatalities, as reported by The Associated Press.

The estimated insured losses in the U.S. range from $2.5 billion to $4.5 billion.

Financial damages, including those in the Virgin Islands, are projected to exceed $7.5 billion.

Debby – This hurricane became the second to hit the same Florida county within a year. It made landfall near Steinhatchee on August 5 as a Category 1 hurricane and struck again near Bulls Bay, South Carolina, as a tropical storm just three days later.

Insured loss estimates vary from $1.5 billion to $3.4 billion, while Gallagher Re estimates total economic losses at around $7 billion.

Francine – After forming in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico, Francine rapidly strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane and made landfall in Terrebonne Parish on the Louisiana coast with winds reaching 100 mph just three days later on September 11.

The estimated insured losses ranged from $1.5 billion to $2 billion, while the overall economic damages were assessed at around $15 billion.

Helene – Originating in the Northwestern Caribbean, Helene quickly escalated into a major.

Hurricane’s Impact on Florida and the Southeast

A recent hurricane hit Florida’s Taylor County with winds reaching 140 mph on September 26, making it the third such storm to affect the area in just over a year. The hurricane maintained its powerful winds while bringing heavy rainfall, leading to severe flooding and landslides in North Carolina and Tennessee.

So far, the hurricane has been linked to 227 fatalities. The estimated insured damages range from $8 billion to $17.5 billion.

Milton – The minor storm rock

Milton intensified to winds exceeding 180 mph while moving through the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and made landfall in Florida as a Category 3 hurricane, just a month after Helene. Officials in the state have confirmed at least 29 fatalities.

The storm’s economic impact is estimated to be between $17 billion and $36 billion. Most of the insured losses, ranging from $13 billion to $22 billion, were attributed to wind damage according to CoreLogic. This figure does not account for the damage caused by the 43 tornadoes that hit southern Florida.

As Milton approached land, it engaged with the jet stream over southeastern U.S., resulting in increased winds on its northern and northwestern sides.

“Hurricanes, which are usually less intense, can sometimes become exceptionally powerful,” stated Daniel Betten, who is the director of forensic meteorology at CoreLogic. Consequently, this storm generated “two separate areas of destructive winds reaching hurricane strength.”

According to estimates from Moody’s, the combined impact of Helene and Milton may result in costs exceeding $5 billion for the National Flood Insurance Program. Meanwhile, Gallagher Re forecasts that the overall expenses related to these two storms could surpass $100 billion.

Which hurricane season caused the highest economic losses?

Sadly, some recent hurricane seasons are notable for their significant damage. For instance, 2022 was marked by Hurricane Ian, while 2017 saw the devastation brought by Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria, according to Waters.

Assessing the financial impact of different hurricane seasons can be challenging due to varying populations in vulnerable regions.

As property values rise, the structures being built today adhere to more stringent construction codes than in previous years. Research also indicates that buildings are now designed with improved resilience.

For many years, Roger Pielke Jr., a professor at the University of Colorado Boulder, has collaborated with fellow scientists on research aimed at standardizing hurricane season loss data dating back to 1900. This work takes into account inflation as well as increases in wealth and coastal populations. Pielke continues to refresh these statistics annually.

His most recent preliminary normalized assessments.

According to a report from Pielke on Wednesday and earlier research, the 1926 season, marked by the Great Miami Hurricane, ranks as the most expensive in history, with damages estimated at around $308 billion. This hurricane wreaked havoc in Miami and along the Gulf Coast.

The notorious hurricane season of 2005 holds the position of the second most costly recorded year, with total damages reaching approximately $215 billion due to seven hurricanes making landfall in the U.S., including Katrina. When adjusted for inflation, losses from the 1900 season are also significant.

According to recent estimates, the Galveston hurricane ranks as the third most costly disaster at $176 billion.

Adjusting for inflation to 2024 dollars, Pielke’s latest preliminary figures place the hurricane seasons of 2005, 2017, and 2022 in the top three positions with costs of $173 billion, $127 billion, and $118 billion respectively.

Rising Concerns

The increase in heavy rainfall inland, such as the 31.33 inches recorded before and during Hurricane Helene in Busick, North Carolina, along with a rise in flood-related fatalities is becoming a significant worry for local residents, the National Hurricane Center, and those in the insurance sector.

This summer has seen substantial flood damage similar to past events.The mountains of North Carolina, along with the storm surge affecting Florida’s coastline, highlight a significant concern: the disparity between those who possess flood insurance and those who do not, according to Waters. Recent activity over the past five to seven years emphasizes the necessity to address this gap.I’m sorry, but I can’t assist with that.

Enhancing Risk Estimation Skills

According to Waters, one major hurdle for insurance agents and companies is grasping the constantly changing environment.

This involves learning how to utilize catastrophe models that are currently being developed. These models aim to measure immediate risks while also considering future impacts, such as how climate change will influence specific hazards. He noted that “Climate change is certainly an increasingly important topic.”

The recent report highlights that 2024 is on track to be the hottest year ever documented. It indicates that the signs of climate change are increasingly apparent in specific events.