As Election Day approaches in just over a week, Kevin Gandy from Loganville, Georgia, is still unsure of his presidential pick.

Gandy, 52, expresses concern about the lingering high inflation rates, rising home maintenance costs, and the overall economic climate, especially after facing job losses as a software consultant twice in the last four years.

Despite these worries, he feels a sense of financial stability as a homeowner whose property’s value has surged approximately 60% in the thriving post-pandemic housing market.

“While I’m not as well off as I was four years ago (due to job losses), I find myself in a manageable financial situation,” stated Gandy, a Libertarian voter who supported Donald Trump in 2016 and a third-party candidate in 2020. “Even though I don’t believe the economy is great, it’s acceptable.”

When voters consider the economy, they often focus on the high prices of gas, groceries, and housing. Over the past four years, these issues drove inflation to a peak of 9.1% in June 2022, although it has since declined significantly to 2.4%.

Nevertheless, skyrocketing housing costs have evoked mixed feelings. On one side, housing shortages have led to rising rental and home prices, but for homeowners, this trend has facilitated swift wealth accumulation. The increase in home equity has surpassed cumulative inflation over the last four years.

An analysis by YSL News, leveraging data from the National Association of Realtors, indicates that since 2020, median homeowners in all seven swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—have seen their housing wealth grow at a much faster rate than the national median homeowner.

The disparity is most evident in North Carolina, where the median homeowner experienced a 60% increase in home value compared to a 34% rise for the average U.S. homeowner. In Arizona and Georgia, median homeowners saw their property values rise by 56% and 58%, respectively, while homeowners in Michigan enjoyed a 47% increase.

Among the remaining swing states, home values increased by 43% in Pennsylvania, 50% in Wisconsin, and 46% in Nevada.

Homeownership has been a fundamental element of wealth creation in the U.S. since the 1950s.

As the election tightens between Republican Trump and Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris, the fluctuations in home values within these seven swing states could significantly affect voter preferences.

“We know homeowners tend to be reliable voters. If they have the financial means to cope with inflation, they are likely in a much better economic position today than a few years ago,” remarked David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, which conducts numerous presidential polls.

He further added, “It’s all about perception. In a close race, every detail counts.”

Changes in property values during the Trump and Biden administrations

From 2020 to 2024, median homeowners in every swing state became wealthier compared to the national average.

While the median home values across the U.S. rose by just over $106,000, they soared by more than $128,000 in Wisconsin, $138,000 in Georgia, $141,000 in Nevada, $145,550 in North Carolina, and an impressive $162,000 in Arizona. Among the swing states, Michigan and Pennsylvania had increases below the national average, with home values rising by $94,000 and $84,500, respectively. However, both states still surpassed the national growth rate.

During the Trump era, homeowners in only one swing state saw housing wealth gains exceeding the national average, and that was marginal. From 2016-2020, median homeowners in Arizona added $72,170 in housing wealth, slightly above the national gain of $72,400.

This difference between the two administrations can largely be attributed to the housing market during the pandemic. Although Arizona was already experiencing an influx of residents and rising home prices before 2020, the pandemic accelerated these trends, extending them to other affordable states in the Sun Belt region. Many swing states also benefitted from this population movement as remote work allowed people to seek larger, cheaper homes.

“The Sun Belt states also saw significant job growth during this time,” noted Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the NAR. Additionally, “Wisconsin gained from the migration of Chicago residents and the rise in remote work.”

The potential influence of homeowners on the election

Statistically, homeowners are more likely to vote compared to renters.

For example, in the 2022 midterm elections, homeowners voted at a rate 21 percentage points higher than renters, with 58.1% of homeowners casting their ballots compared to 36.5% of renters, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.

Discussions with housing economists, researchers, and independent homeowners in swing states suggest that the financial boost from rising housing wealth could favor the incumbent party in the upcoming election.

There’s a term for this trend: “Homevoter hypothesis.”

According to Daryl Fairweather, a housing economist at Redfin, the changes in home equity can affect how voters lean toward candidates.

Fairweather referenced a 2019 study that found that slower increases in home values for Latino homeowners in Florida made them less inclined to vote for incumbent Democrats in the 2016 elections.

A recent research paper titled “Housing performance and the electorate” examined this “homevoter hypothesis” across the last five presidential elections using voting data at the county level.

The findings revealed that 77% of counties consistently voted either Democrat or Republican in every election since 2000.

However, 23% of counties, totaling 641, switched their party preference one to four times between 2004 and 2022.

The study showed that for each 1% rise in home value, voters who previously supported the incumbent were 0.3% more likely to continue supporting them nationwide. In swing counties, this likelihood increased to 0.44%.

“Swing counties are less entrenched in their political views, and there is a stronger connection between home values and electoral outcomes,” stated Eren Cifci, a finance professor at Austin Peay State University and one of the study’s authors, in an interview with YSL News. “As home prices rise, it may enhance their feelings of wealth and lead them to favor the incumbent.”

Yet, considering the current atypical housing market characterized by a housing shortage and high mortgage rates, home equity may not be the primary concern for all homeowners.

“For those satisfied with their homes, the incumbent party, likely the Democrats, may benefit,” Fairweather noted. “However, for individuals who feel trapped in their current home and unable to afford a new one, disappointment may prevail.”

Jeff Linden, a registered independent from Doylestown, Pennsylvania, shares this perspective.

Linden, a real estate agent, notes that while he appreciates that his 2,100-square-foot, three-bedroom home, valued at around $460,000 in 2020, could now sell for $675,000, many of his clients express feelings of entrapment.

“The prevailing sentiment among homeowners is: ‘I have all this equity in my house, but if I sell, I’m going to be paying a premium wherever I end up,’” he explained. “Plus, I’d be giving up a 2.5% or 3% interest rate for something much higher – it just doesn’t add up.”

Despite this, Linden plans to vote for Harris. He believes she can foster economic growth and appreciates the Federal Reserve’s handling of the economy.

The Connection Between Home Values and Voting

Considering the heightened emotions surrounding the upcoming election, Cifci and co-author Owen Tidwell warned that changes in home equity are just one of many variables that can sway voters.

<p“This election cycle is quite unique, with many unusual occurrences happening,” Tidwell mentioned to YSL News, specifically referring to Harris taking the lead on the Democratic ticket just 100 days before the election.

This sentiment resonates with Susan Didrichsen, a long-time Democrat who registered as an independent in Pennsylvania last year.

Her shift was largely influenced by the Biden administration’s approach to COVID-19 vaccines.

Didrichsen, who refused the vaccine while working as a professional singer in New York City, described the backlash she faced from others: “People were yelling at us, calling us murderers.”

In 2022, she sold her small Manhattan apartment for six times its purchase price in 1989, choosing instead to live full-time in her country home in rural Pennsylvania.

Her home in Stroudsburg has also appreciated over the years. This increase in housing wealth contributes to her financial stability, and she noted that the economy is not her main concern for the upcoming election.

Instead, her priority is health, and she’s involved in a growing homesteading community.

Thus, when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced his presidential run last year, she was all in.

“He was an environmentalist, an advocate against Monsanto, and he played a key role in cleaning up the Hudson River,” she remarked about Kennedy, who also leads an anti-vaccine group.

However, once Kennedy suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump, she shifted her support to him.

“Trump has weathered every storm thrown his way by the Democrats,” she stated. “I’m voting based on my principles because I believe Bobby Kennedy will play a role in the next administration.”

For Gandy, a Georgia homeowner who has never voted for a Democratic presidential candidate, the rise in housing wealth has emboldened him to vote for his beliefs.

“I may not feel wealthy, but I have confidence in my ability to face potential economic challenges during a Harris presidency,” he expressed. “I’m willing to take that risk to prevent Trump from undermining our Constitution.”