New, innovative research highlights how local agricultural research and development efforts have led to better crop varieties, ultimately benefiting the environment and promoting food system sustainability on a global scale.
New, innovative research highlights how local agricultural research and development efforts have led to better crop varieties, ultimately benefiting the environment and promoting food system sustainability on a global scale. This study from Purdue University is featured in the most recent issue of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
“At the global level, advancements in technology have resulted in less land being used for agriculture, which has led to improved terrestrial carbon storage and helped prevent the decline of endangered plant and animal species,” said Uris Baldos, research associate professor of agricultural economics, who led the study.
This research represents the first detailed analysis since the early 1960s, utilizing global data from around 100,000 grid cells. Each grid cell spans an area of 27.2 square kilometers (10.5 square miles) at the equator, though grid cells become progressively smaller farther from the equator due to the Earth’s curvature.
“Achieving that level of spatial detail is essential to understand biodiversity, as it is not distributed evenly,” noted Thomas Hertel, Distinguished Professor of Agriculture and co-author of the study. The study also examined how changes in agricultural land use have impacted biodiversity, discovering that reductions in agricultural land use attributed to improved crop varieties have preserved 1,043 species of animals and plants worldwide.
Of those saved, there were 818 plant species and 225 species across amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles. “We found that about 80% of the plant species saved from extinction are located within 31 of the 34 biodiversity hotspots identified in our model,” Baldos and his colleagues mentioned.
Agriculture occupies approximately 37% of the Earth’s land and accounts for a quarter of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. The study indicated that improved crop varieties led to a decrease in cropland from 1961 to 2015. Specifically, global cropland shrank by over 39 million acres while crop production increased by 226 million metric tons. Concurrently, crop prices fell by nearly 2% due to these advancements.
The research quantified the contributions of new crop varieties developed through the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), a global innovation network celebrating its 50th anniversary in 2021.
“Globally, CGIAR technologies accounted for approximately 47% of the total production gains from adopting new crop varieties in developing nations from 1961 to 2015,” Baldos and his co-authors reported. These CGIAR innovations also significantly decreased cropland use, greenhouse gas emissions, and losses in biodiversity.
The researchers achieved their findings through Purdue’s global model of agriculture, land use, and environment called the Simplified International Model of Agricultural Prices, Land use, and the Environment — Gridded, or SIMPLE-G. This model used an extensive dataset on variety adoption and on-farm crop yields provided by co-author Keith Fuglie, an economist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service.
“In this version of SIMPLE-G, the main factors are population growth and productivity growth,” Baldos stated. The model includes crop production data at the grid-cell level, accounting for inputs like fertilizer, labor, and water.
Moreover, data from satellites regarding terrestrial carbon and cropland availability were integrated into the SIMPLE-G model. The open-access publication “SIMPLE-G: Gridded Economic Approach to Sustainability Analysis of the Earth’s Land and Water Resources” presents various iterations of the model. SIMPLE-G is part of a collection of models created by Purdue’s Global Trade Analysis Project.
Previous studies had limitations due to lack of data, which led them to focus on larger national and continental scales to analyze the historical impacts of agricultural advancements on land use. Those studies found that enhanced agricultural practices boosted profitability in regions like sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, while also promoting deforestation and other negative environmental impacts in certain areas.
However, a broader perspective exists, as Purdue agricultural economists have consistently pointed out over the years. “Improved agricultural technologies generally conserve resources on a global scale, allowing us to feed roughly the same population while being more efficient,” Hertel remarked.
Earlier research, including a 2014 study in PNAS by Hertel and Baldos, explored the influence of better farming technologies on land use and greenhouse gas emissions. This was the first study to analyze agricultural economic models backward over decades, similar to methods employed by climate scientists.
This earlier study also examined agricultural scenarios backward to 1961 and then forward, both with and without new crop varieties. “If we removed the technology, how would the situation appear?” Hertel commented. In the recent study, he added, “We’re applying similar innovations from that earlier study, but now with a detailed analysis that allows us to address aspects of biodiversity and terrestrial carbon.”
The prior research discussed anticipated effects of a green revolution in Africa. “The impact of these improved varieties has been significant in Africa. That’s a positive development,” Hertel stated.
The initial benefits of the Green Revolution largely reflected advancements in Asia and parts of Latin America. However, thanks to recent investments from both private and government entities, research organizations in sub-Saharan Africa have begun creating new varieties of important local crops, including tubers and legumes.
“Previously, countries in that region lacked national research institutes capable of adapting improved varieties to their unique local conditions,” Baldos explained. He also noted that the private sector has introduced new varieties in recent decades, such as genetically modified soybeans in South America.
The research team concluded that continuous investment in agricultural research could help maintain productivity growth globally, enhancing food security and minimizing agriculture’s environmental impact in the coming years.
This research received support from the U.S. Agency for International Development’s Bureau for Resilience and Food Security and the USDA Economic Research Service.
