The WNBA playoffs are just around the corner with only two days remaining in the regular season. The top four teams will host the first playoff round, but the final rankings are still uncertain. Key games are still on the schedule, including the Minnesota-Connecticut match on Tuesday. Chicago will also play against Atlanta on the same day, as these teams, along with the Washington Mystics, compete for the eighth and final playoff position.

New York currently tops the standings but could potentially drop spots if they lose to teams like Washington and Atlanta, which they are expected to beat.

With much still undecided, Caitlin Clark delivered another outstanding performance on Sunday. She achieved a career-high in points and set a new single-season scoring record for rookies in the WNBA, leading the Indiana Fever to secure the sixth playoff seed. Let’s delve into who they might face in the first round.

Understanding the WNBA Playoff Format

The first round of the WNBA playoffs pits the sixth seed against the third seed. All matchups in this round are best-of-three series, with the higher-seeded team hosting the first two games. If a third game is necessary, it takes place at the home of the lower-seeded team.

This format means that lower-seeded teams might miss out on significant financial gains from hosting postseason games. If they manage to win a game on the road, however, the pressure mounts on the higher-seeded team to secure a victory in a challenging away environment.

If the playoffs were to start today, Indiana would be going up against … Connecticut.

However, it’s important to note that the No. 3 seed has yet to be determined. Depending on the outcomes of the matches on Tuesday and Thursday, there could be changes. Minnesota (29-9), Connecticut (27-11), and Las Vegas (25-13) are all closely ranked, meaning surprises could still occur. The Sun will finish their regular season by facing Minnesota and Chicago.

For our discussion, let’s presume it will be Connecticut versus Indiana in the opening round.

Caitlin Clark’s Performance Against the Connecticut Sun This Season

The Fever and the Sun have clashed four times this season, with Connecticut leading the series 3-1. Here’s a breakdown of Clark’s statistics in those encounters:

∎May 14: Connecticut 92, Indiana 71

Clark’s stats: 20 points (5-of-15 shooting, 4-of-11 from three), 3 assists, 2 steals, 10 turnovers

∎May 20: Connecticut 88, Indiana 84

Clark’s stats: 17 points (5-of-11 shooting, 3-of-7 from three), 3 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 blocks, 5 turnovers

∎June 10: Connecticut 89, Indiana 72

Clark’s stats: 10 points (3-of-8 shooting, 2-of-5 from three), 2 assists, 1 steal, 3 turnovers

∎Aug. 28: Indiana 84, Connecticut 80

Clark’s stats: 19 points (7-of-17 shooting, 3-of-12 from three), 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal, 1 block, 7 turnovers

Notably, Indiana’s only victory over Connecticut came after the Olympic break, which has been advantageous for both Clark and the Fever overall. Since the WNBA resumed in August, Indiana has performed well, achieving a 9-4 record; the only team they failed to defeat this season was Las Vegas.

Caitlin Clark vs. DiJonai Carrington

During the playoffs, much like in the regular season, Clark is expected to be defended by DiJonai Carrington from Connecticut, who is known as one of the premier perimeter defenders in the league. Although she is 5-foot-11, Carrington is a gifted athlete—her brother had a successful eight-year career in the NFL—possessing long arms and agility, favoring physical matchups. Clark and Carrington have developed a competitive dynamic this season, as Carrington has often voiced her frustration to referees regarding Clark’s complaints about foul calls.

It’s evident that Carrington has mastered the art of defending against Clark. Despite being the frontrunner for the Rookie of the Year award, Clark has only managed to shoot 39% (20-of-51) against the Sun, including a mere 34% (12-of-35) from beyond the arc in their four meetings. Carrington might downplay the significance of their one-on-one encounters, but she clearly thrives on frustrating opponents and forcing them into hasty decisions.

The Sun have the strongest defensive metrics in the league, boasting numerous players with lengthy reach capable of applying pressure on Clark and the Fever’s other guards. If Carrington isn’t assigned to Clark, it’s likely DeWanna Bonner or Alyssa Thomas will take on that role—both seasoned players who enjoy challenging opposing guards.

In summary, while Indiana has shown impressive performance after the Olympic break, particularly with Kelsey Mitchell and Lexie Hull stepping up, they know they have a tough road ahead.

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