Clarifications and corrections: An earlier version of this story included incorrect figures for migrant encounters with the U.S. Customs and Border Protection. The story has been updated.

EL PASO, Texas – Kari Lenander manages shelters for migrants in West Texas and New Mexico, where beds have typically been crowded for years.

Now, however, most beds sit vacant.

Recent statistics show that migrant apprehensions along the U.S.-Mexico border fell in July to their lowest levels during the Biden administration, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection data shared with YSL News.

This trend of decreasing migrant crossings has persisted for the last five months. It represents a significant achievement for the Biden administration amid ongoing challenges, as Vice President Kamala Harris gets ready for the upcoming Democratic National Convention. The CBP is set to release the latest border data publicly on Friday.

“The numbers have definitely dropped, and quite substantially,” Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas told YSL News. “This decrease is due to multiple factors rather than a single cause.”

According to Mayorkas, these factors include the introduction of new legal pathways for migrants to enter the United States, consequences for illegal crossings, stricter asylum policies, and successful diplomatic efforts with Mexico, Guatemala, Panama, and Colombia to enhance their border security and humanitarian aid efforts.

Changes in U.S. border policy can create temporary declines in crossings as migrants assess the implications for their circumstances and as smugglers find ways around new rules. Moreover, changes implemented by the administration may face legal challenges that could weaken their effectiveness. This year, Mexico has maintained an unusually prolonged crackdown on illegal crossings.

Lenander acknowledges that these downturns are often temporary.

Her shelter in El Paso is neat and inviting. The white walls are adorned with vibrant colors and flags from various nations. The medical clinic inside is fully equipped and staffed, awaiting arrivals. An industrial laundry room is quiet, and she turns on the lights in an empty classroom designated for immigration orientations.

“It’s strange,” she commented about the sudden drop in migrant numbers.

The underlying issues driving people to flee their countries remain unchanged. So, what has happened to all the migrants?

Migration numbers tell a new story

Throughout the Biden administration, Republicans have consistently criticized its perceived “open border” policies, pointing to growing statistics. In the past three years, migrant encounters reached historic highs, surpassing 2.5 million last year.

During the Republican National Convention in July, Texas Governor Greg Abbott, a prominent critic of immigration policies, vowed to continue sending “migrant buses” to “sanctuary cities,” including Chicago, until the Biden administration secures the border. This assurance was met with applause.

Although Republicans have not altered their rhetoric, the latest figures are presenting a different narrative.

As Harris and the Democrats head to their convention in Chicago this weekend, migrant shelter leaders in Texas report that there are currently no “migrant buses” operating. The governor’s press secretary linked the drop in crossings to the state’s border security measures, noting that buses “continue to stage” near the southern border.

“A decline in illegal crossings into Texas means there are fewer buses heading to sanctuary cities,” stated spokesman Andrew Mahaleris.

Data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection indicates that migrant encounters in July decreased compared to June across all nine Border Patrol sectors from Texas to California.

CBP recorded 56,408 migrant encounters at points between ports in July, marking a 57% decrease from 132,642 in the same month the previous year and a 32% drop from June.

CBP also reported a decline across all demographics—single adults, family units, and unaccompanied minors—during a season when migration typically increases.

The number of migrant encounters at official entry points, facilitated through CBP One appointments, also fell in July, down to about 38,000 from over 44,000 in the same month the prior year.

Lenander noted that while her shelter continues to see approximately 100 migrants daily, most of them used the CBP One app to cross legally, disqualifying them from the Texas “migrant buses,” which only transport those who crossed unlawfully.

Lenander remarked that El Paso was the last location where the governor’s buses were stationed, and the state halted its final bus operation last week.

“The buses have stopped running,” she stated. “Not because Abbott wanted them to, but due to the lack of people.”

Efforts to curb illegal immigration at the border

In Ciudad Juárez, Mexico, right across from El Paso, recent heavy rainfall left the Rio Grande flowing briskly. On the riverbank, a pair of children’s sandals, a tube of toothpaste, and an empty tuna can lay abandoned—leftovers from migrants who had passed through earlier.

Only a short time ago, there were hundreds of individuals and families at this spot.

This year, migrants have been waiting for an opportunity to navigate through the concertina wire barriers set up by the Texas National Guard in order to surrender themselves to Border Patrol. At this moment, only one family remained along the riverbank, where a woman gently brushed her fingers through a sleeping little girl’s hair.

One of the primary objectives of the Biden administration has been to decrease perilous crossings between official entry points, though this has proven to be a particularly difficult task.

In the early days of the administration, Vice President Harris notably instructed migrants, “Do not come,” a sentiment that mirrored a familiar line from Border Patrol. Despite her warning, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent worldwide turmoil led countless migrants to disregard her advice and flock to the U.S. border in unprecedented numbers.

In December 2023, illegal crossings reached an all-time high, with over 300,000 irregular entries reported. The White House endorsed bipartisan discussions in Congress aimed at achieving a border security agreement.

The Senate’s proposed legislation allocated funds for the recruitment of additional Border Patrol agents and enhancement of detention facilities. It sought to restrict access to the U.S. asylum process and ended the practice of apprehending migrants and allowing them to remain in the U.S. while their claims were processed.

However, this initiative failed after former President Donald Trump criticized it as a “highly sophisticated trap for Republicans” back in February. Attempts to reintroduce the bill by Democratic lawmakers in May also ended in failure.

Meanwhile, the discussions between the Biden administration and Mexico, along with other countries, began to yield results with shared enforcement goals and humanitarian efforts, managing to slow the influx of migrants in the region. While tens of thousands still aimed to reach the U.S., the journey was becoming increasingly challenging and prolonged.

In June, the White House enacted an executive order that significantly limited migrants’ opportunities to claim asylum at the border, effectively shutting down a route that millions used to enter the U.S. in recent years.

The Department of Homeland Security also increased its efforts to deport individuals from the U.S. In July, Secretary Mayorkas announced an agreement where the U.S. would compensate Panama for deporting foreign nationals. Additionally, the agency implemented measures to add layers of security, blocking migrants outside Mexico from scheduling appointments through CBP One.

According to Secretary Mayorkas, the notable decline in unlawful border crossings has persisted longer than previous strategies.

“Smuggling organizations adapt based on our actions,” he remarked. “Nevertheless, in this instance, it is a comprehensive set of measures that I believe is one reason for the sustainability of this decline.”

Every day, Lenander and other shelter directors receive alerts from the El Paso Sector of Border Patrol regarding the number of migrants being released and those needing shelter. In the past, these numbers were often in the hundreds.

These days, it’s frequently just a handful, she noted. Recently, they received notices about only nine or seven migrants.

Navigating under the wire

As the morning sun shone through the remnants of the night’s storm clouds, the group on the riverbank rose, stretched, and approached a section where the concertina wire could be lifted.

The little girl, dressed in pink shorts and a white T-shirt, crawled up the dirt bank beneath the sharp coils of wire. Three women followed her, with a man trailing behind.

The coils jingled noisily as they moved, reminiscent of a slinky tumbling down stairs. In less than ten minutes, they managed to free themselves from the wire. A Texas National Guardsman in a muddy white truck shouted for them to return to Mexico.

Instead, they hurried toward the U.S. border wall. Shortly after, a Border Patrol agent arrived. The migrants positioned themselves along the fence, their futures uncertain.

Would they face deportation to their home country, be returned to Mexico, or be admitted to Lenander’s shelter or another facility?

Without an appointment via CBP One, returning to Mexico was the likely outcome.

It remains unclear whether the migrants were aware of the updated regulations. Daniel Berlin, policy director for protection at the International Rescue Committee, remarked that migrants “have numerous information needs.” “The situation in both Mexico and at the U.S. border is exceedingly complex.”

“Regardless of what smuggling networks and other connections may claim,” he stated, “the U.S. border is by no means open. It’s as restricted as it has been in a very long time.”