Reflecting the findings of recent surveys, offshore gamblers now believe Democratic candidate Kamala Harris will win against Republican candidate Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential election this November.

The odds on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency trading platform, shifted in favor of the vice president on Saturday night as she and her running mate Tim Walz completed a four-day tour across five key states.

As of Tuesday at 10 a.m. EDT, the betting—which is not legally permitted in the U.S.—indicates a 52% chance of Harris winning the election, while Trump stands at 45%. Just a month ago, bettors had given Trump a winning probability as high as 71%.

Predictions for the 2024 presidential election

Polymarket’s betting odds reflect current trends but do not project likely victory margins as surveys do; however, the perceptions for both Harris and Trump have notably changed in the last month. Betting patterns align closely with Real Clear Politics’ polling averages.

Correlation of presidential odds with recent polling

Since July 21, when President Joe Biden exited the race, the gap between Trump and the Democratic candidate on Polymarket has been narrowing. By Sunday, the odds also switched in Harris’s favor across five additional betting platforms where she is now seen as a slight favorite to win the presidency.

Election odds show slight favor for a Harris victory

Could Trump win? Odds are nearly a coin toss at this point

This election cycle, Polymarket bettors had accurately predicted a few days beforehand that Ohio Senator JD Vance would be Trump’s running mate, and that Harris would secure the Democratic nomination. Meanwhile, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro was widely favored on betting platforms, except for the final day when Walz briefly took the lead.

Real Clear Politics highlights that on August 13, Biden had an over 7-point lead over Trump in 2020, while in the same timeframe in 2016, Hillary Clinton’s lead was just under 7 points.

Harris was named the favorite just days before Biden’s exit

Both bettors and American voters have many factors to consider leading up to November 4, including the upcoming Democratic National Convention next week and the first Trump-Harris debate planned for September 10.

Historically, how reliable have election odds been?

Since 1866, the betting favorite has only lost twice, according to the nonprofit news organization, the Conversation.

The two noted exceptions occurred in 1948 when Democrat Harry Truman defied eight-to-one odds to outpace Republican Thomas Dewey, and in 2016 when Trump triumphed over seven-to-two odds to defeat Hillary Clinton.