Experts have revealed that the Sun has entered a phase known as solar maximum, which could last for another year. It will take several months for scientists to pinpoint the exact peak of this solar maximum since it’s recognized only after a steady drop in solar activity occurs post-peak. However, observers have noted that the Sun has been quite active for the last two years, characterized by a high number of sunspots.
In a press conference on Tuesday, officials from NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the international Solar Cycle Prediction Panel declared that the Sun has reached its solar maximum phase, which may persist for about a year.
The solar cycle is a natural progression of the Sun between periods of low and high magnetic activity, occurring roughly every 11 years. At the peak of this cycle, the Sun’s magnetic poles switch places—similar to flipping the North and South poles on Earth—which results in a transition from a calm state to an active and turbulent one.
NASA and NOAA monitor the number of sunspots to track and anticipate the solar cycle’s advancements and solar activity overall. Sunspots are cooler areas on the Sun created by concentrated magnetic fields. These sunspots are visible indicators of active regions characterized by intense and intricate magnetic fields responsible for solar eruptions.
“During solar maximum, both the count of sunspots and the overall solar activity rise,” explained Jamie Favors, director of the Space Weather Program at NASA Headquarters in Washington. “This uptick in activity presents an incredible chance to learn more about our closest star, while also impacting conditions on Earth and throughout the solar system.”
Solar activity significantly affects space weather, which can have repercussions for satellites, astronauts, as well as communication and navigation systems—such as radio and GPS—and power grids on Earth. When solar activity peaks, events related to space weather become more common. Recent months have seen solar activity enhance the visibility of auroras and impact satellites and infrastructure.
In May 2024, a series of powerful solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) propelled clouds of charged particles and magnetic fields toward Earth, resulting in the strongest geomagnetic storm the planet has experienced in two decades, along with possibly the most remarkable auroras seen in the last 500 years.
“This announcement doesn’t indicate that we’ve witnessed the peak of solar activity for this cycle,” stated Elsayed Talaat, director of space weather operations at NOAA. “While the Sun is currently in a solar maximum phase, it will take months or even years to pinpoint when solar activity actually peaked.”
Determining the precise peak of this solar maximum phase will take time since it can only be identified after solar activity shows a consistent decline. Nevertheless, scientists recognize that the last couple of years have been an active time in the solar cycle, marked by a sustained high number of sunspots. Experts expect this maximum phase to last for another year before the Sun transitions into a decline leading up to solar minimum. Since 1989, the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel—an international group of experts backed by NASA and NOAA—has collaborated to make forecasts for the upcoming solar cycle.
Astronomers have been tracking solar cycles since Galileo identified sunspots in the 1600s. Each cycle varies, with some experiencing sharper peaks for shorter durations while others have more prolonged, smaller peaks.
“Sunspot activity during Solar Cycle 25 has slightly surpassed our expectations,” commented Lisa Upton, co-chair of the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel and lead scientist at the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio, Texas. “Yet, although there have been a few significant storms, they are not beyond what we would typically forecast for the maximum phase of the cycle.”
The most powerful flare recorded in the current cycle occurred on October 3, with an intensity classified as X9.0 (X-class corresponds to the most severe flares, with the number indicating its strength level).
NOAA foresees more solar and geomagnetic storms during the ongoing solar maximum period, which could offer more chances to witness auroras in the coming months alongside potential impacts on technology. While less frequent, considerable storms can also be anticipated during the descending phase of the solar cycle.
NASA and NOAA are gearing up for the future of space weather research and forecasting. In December 2024, NASA’s Parker Solar Probe mission will approach the Sun closer than ever before, surpassing its previous record as the closest human-made object to the Sun. This will mark the first of three scheduled approaches at this distance, aiding researchers in their understanding of space weather directly from its source.
NASA is set to initiate various missions over the next year aimed at enhancing our understanding of space weather and its effects across the solar system.
Forecasting space weather is crucial for ensuring the safety of NASA’s Artemis campaign spacecraft and astronauts. Assessing the space environment is essential for understanding and minimizing astronauts’ exposure to radiation in space.
As a key player in the national space weather research effort, NASA invites you to see how space weather can affect Earth by visiting NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, the official source for space weather forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts:
https://www.spaceweather.gov/
