While Black Friday may not see the long lines like it did in the past, the total number of holiday shoppers visiting stores and shopping online this year has come close to breaking records.

Leading up to the Thanksgiving shopping weekend—which runs from Thanksgiving Day to Cyber Monday—the National Retail Federation predicted that 183.4 million consumers would engage in shopping activities either in stores or online.

However, the actual number of shoppers surpassed these expectations significantly, reaching 197 million, according to Matthew Shay, the CEO and president of the NRF, who shared the findings during a telephone news conference Tuesday in collaboration with Prosper Insights & Analytics.

This figure of 197 million shoppers accounts for 75% of the U.S. adult population and is 14 million higher than what the NRF initially predicted. Shay mentioned that this is also the second-highest turnout recorded since the NRF began tracking these statistics, almost matching last year’s peak of 200.4 million shoppers.

An Increase in Store and Online Shoppers

The Thanksgiving shopping weekend “is an incredibly significant holiday period,” Shay emphasized. “It’s an emotionally charged time and usually reflects the overall consumer and economic vitality.”

He noted that “it may even matter more to consumers now than prior to the pandemic.”

On average, 21 million more consumers participated in the Thanksgiving shopping weekend during the last three years compared to the pre-pandemic years (2017 to 2019), he pointed out.

Despite ongoing inflation, Shay remains optimistic, stating, “We anticipate a robust holiday season: Consumers are spending money, and retailers are feeling upbeat about it.”

More Consumers Chose In-Store Shopping

Shoppers preferred convenience both in physical stores and online throughout the weekend. About 126 million consumers shopped in stores—up from 121.4 million last year. Meanwhile, around 124.3 million consumers shopped online, a decrease from 134.2 million the previous year.

Shay noted that higher-income households were significantly more likely to shop online, with 60% of households earning over $100,000 annually opting for online shopping, compared to only 40% of households making $50,000 a year.

Value-focused consumers showed a tendency to shop more in-store, particularly at discount retailers, with the figure rising to 32%, up from 28% last year, according to Shay.

“Higher-income households are more inclined to shop online, while those at different income levels are increasingly seeking deals in person, contributing to this year’s impressive in-store turnout,” he explained.

He believes that the resurgence of in-store shopping “reflects an ongoing trend since the pandemic, where people truly missed the experience of gathering together with family and friends. This desire, combined with enticing deals, has driven these numbers up so significantly.”

“People are genuinely out shopping, leading to strong foot traffic in stores,” he commented.

Black Friday Surpasses Cyber Monday

Black Friday continues to dominate as the most popular shopping day for both in-store and online purchases. According to the NRF survey, 81.7 million consumers shopped in-store on Black Friday, an increase from 76.2 million last year, marking the highest participation rate since the pandemic. Approximately 87.3 million shopped online, which is a slight decline from 90.6 million in 2023.

Cyber Monday remains the second most favored day for online shopping, with 64.4 million consumers participating, down from 73.1 million last year. The NRF mentioned that the online event continues to evolve, with a majority (63%) of Cyber Monday online shoppers reporting they made their purchases using mobile devices, an increase from 55% last year and the highest figure tracked by the NRF thus far.

However, Adobe Analytics, which focuses solely on online spending, provided differing insights, highlighting that Cyber Monday online sales outperformed Black Friday.

According to Adobe, consumers spent $10.8 billion on Black Friday, reflecting a 10.2% increase from the previous year. Shoppers combined spent $10.9 billion during the weekend of Nov. 30 and Dec. 1, which marks a 5.8% increase from last year

Adobe further reported on Tuesday that consumers spent $13.3 billion on Cyber Monday, representing a 7.3% rise from a year earlier and exceeding Adobe’s initial estimate of $13.2 billion. During the peak shopping hours from 8 p.m. to 10 p.m., consumers were spending $15.8 million every minute.

Adobe projects that the entire holiday season from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31 will reach $240.8 billion in sales, which is an 8.4% increase compared to last year.

Near Record Sales on Saturday

The NRF report also included data for Saturday, often recognized as Small Business Saturday. This year recorded the second-highest in-store shopping figures for the Saturday after Thanksgiving, attracting 61.1 million shoppers.

According to Shay from the NRF, while some research indicates a decline in in-store shopping and an increase in online shopping, the findings from the trade group differ slightly due to their unique approach. Other surveys typically measure revenue, whereas NRF and Prosper’s surveys focus on counting distinct individual shoppers.

“It’s clear that households with higher incomes tend to shop online more and spend larger amounts,” he explained. “This could explain why our survey shows a decrease in shopper numbers.”

Popular Shopping Locations

The NRF’s survey identified the most popular shopping locations during the Thanksgiving shopping weekend as:

• Department stores: 42%,
• Online retailers: 42%,
• Grocery stores and supermarkets: 40%,
• Clothing and accessories stores: 37%,
• Discount stores: 32%.

Bestselling Items

According to Phil Rist, the executive vice president of strategy for Prosper, shoppers mainly focused on buying holiday gifts this season.

The survey revealed that during the five-day period, 86% of shoppers bought gifts, spending an average of $235, which is $8 more than in 2023.

The most popular gifts purchased during the Thanksgiving weekend included:

• Clothing and accessories: 49%,
• Toys: 31%,
• Gift cards: 27%,
• Food and candy: 23%,
• Personal care or beauty products: 23%.

Many consumers mentioned that their purchases were influenced by sales and discounts, with a significant number stating that the availability of free shipping encouraged them to finalize purchases they were previously unsure about.

Early Holiday Shopping Trends

The slight reduction in shopper numbers compared to last year’s Thanksgiving makes sense, said Shay, considering there are five fewer days in this year’s shopping season due to the later date of Thanksgiving. Many consumers noted they began their shopping before Black Friday, aligning with past trends and shopper survey patterns, he noted.

Major national retailers, including Amazon and Walmart, also launched their Black Friday deals earlier this year.

Although there are five fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this time around, surveyed shoppers indicated they had started shopping earlier. Specifically, 38% of participants took advantage of sales the week preceding Thanksgiving weekend, and another 22% shopped two weeks prior.

Previous studies in September suggested shoppers would begin their holiday shopping earlier, as reported by YSL News.

A study from Gartner Inc. found that 32% of consumers intended to do their holiday shopping between July and October. Another September survey by Bankrate concluded that 48% of shoppers would kick off their holiday shopping by Halloween.

Even after Black Friday and Cyber Monday, over half of the shoppers, about 52%, indicated they still had purchases left to make, Rist mentioned.

“We are truly at the midpoint of the holiday season,” he stated.

The NRF defines the holiday shopping season as lasting from November 1 through December 31 and predicts that holiday spending will reach unprecedented levels, with an anticipated growth of 2.5% to 3.5% compared to 2023, totaling between $979.5 billion and $989 billion.