A recent study indicates that by 2100, a rise in sea levels by 1 meter could impact over 14 million individuals and jeopardize property valued at $1 trillion along the Southeastern Atlantic coast, stretching from Norfolk, Virginia to Miami, Florida.
A recent study published in Nature Climate Change estimates that a 1-meter rise in sea level by 2100 will impact more than 14 million individuals and threaten $1 trillion worth of property along the Southeast Atlantic coastline, from Norfolk, Virginia, to Miami, Florida.
The research evaluates the combined effects of various climate-related coastal threats, including rising sea levels, flooding, beach erosion, land subsidence, and increased groundwater levels, all of which are projected to worsen significantly by the end of the 21st century.
The extent of these overlapping risks is far greater than previously thought, according to Manoochehr Shirzaei, a co-author of the study from the Department of Geosciences at Virginia Tech.
“The threat of flooding, compounded by land subsidence and loss of beaches, could displace millions and harm essential infrastructure unless strong adaptation measures are put in place,” Shirzaei noted.
Key findings
- Dangers from shallow groundwater: By 2100, 70% of the coastal population will face risks from shallow or emerging groundwater, which poses a far graver threat than everyday flooding. This issue is expected to impact approximately $1 trillion in property value, creating significant challenges for infrastructure like roads, buildings, septic systems, and utilities.
- Flooding from storms: Coastal storms and hurricanes will heighten the risk of land flooding. With a 1-meter rise in sea level, up to 50% of residents in the area could be affected, putting $770 billion in property value at risk.
- Erosion and loss of beaches: The Southeastern Atlantic region, recognized for its barrier islands and coastal ecosystems, could see a loss of up to 80% of its sandy beaches with just a 1-meter increase in sea level.
- Land subsidence: Beyond rising sea levels, many locations along the Southeast Atlantic coast are experiencing land sinking, known as subsidence, which worsens the impacts of rising seas.
- Socioeconomic risk: A large segment of the population and properties in the Southeast Atlantic will face multiple coastal dangers, disproportionately affecting low-income communities. As much as half of the populace in flood-prone areas will be at risk from both groundwater and storm-related flooding.
The research emphasizes the need for a comprehensive strategy for coastal resilience that tackles the diverse range of climate-related threats.
“We must reconsider how we plan and construct for the future, particularly in highly vulnerable coastal areas,” Shirzaei stated. “By incorporating a broader array of climate threats in resilience strategies, we can more effectively safeguard our communities from the combined effects of rising sea levels and extreme weather events.”
The study, spearheaded by Patrick Barnard from the U.S. Geological Survey, utilized advanced geospatial data and modeling tools developed in partnership with academic institutions and government bodies. The researchers employed the Coastal Storm Modeling System along with other advanced models to assess possible coastal hazard impacts, serving as an essential resource for informed decision-making.
