It’s that time of year again—pumpkin spice season! Time to indulge in pumpkin spice lattes, ales, and trail mixes.

However, get ready for higher prices.

According to a recent report by LendingTree, consumers looking for pumpkin-spiced options can expect to pay an average of 7.4% more than for regular pumpkin-free products—a phenomenon they refer to as the “pumpkin spice tax.”

LendingTree has examined this pricing trend three times since 2020, noting an 8.8% markup in 2020 and a 14.1% increase in 2022.

“The persistent higher prices for pumpkin-flavored items make this an intriguing topic to revisit,” said Matt Schulz, LendingTree’s chief credit analyst. “This trend seems to capture the nation’s attention for a couple of months each year.”

Expect to pay more for that beloved autumn flavor

This year, LendingTree reviewed 116 pumpkin-flavored products available at grocery stores and coffee shops. The findings showed that retailers typically mark up prices for items containing pumpkin. Some retailers might keep prices the same but reduce the package size, a tactic referred to as “shrinkflation.”

Here are a few examples:

• Starbucks charges $7.45 for a 16-ounce Iced Pumpkin Spice Latte, while a regular Iced Caffe Latte is $5.95.
• At Target, a family-size box of Kellogg’s pumpkin spice Frosted Flakes costs $5.89, the same as a larger box of regular Frosted Flakes.
• A quart of Trader Joe’s Non-Dairy Pumpkin Oat Beverage is priced at $2.99, whereas a quart of the regular Non-Dairy Oat Beverage is only $2.79.

However, not every pumpkin spice product comes with a premium price. For instance, a quart of Starbucks pumpkin spice Cold Brew coffee concentrate available at Target is $11.49, the same price as its pumpkin-free counterpart. Additionally, at Trader Joe’s, pumpkin-flavored Joe-Joe’s cookies are cheaper per ounce than the chocolate or peanut butter versions. None of the retailers provided comments on their pricing strategies.

The origins of pumpkin spice popularity

The pumpkin is a staple associated with the Halloween season in October. However, the idea of pumpkin spice as a product and marketing tool can be traced back to 1934, when McCormick introduced the spice mix to flavor pies. Bakers found it useful to combine ginger, nutmeg, cinnamon, cloves, and sometimes allspice in one jar.

However, it wasn’t until after 2003 when Starbucks launched its pumpkin spice latte—somewhat humorously in April—that pumpkin spice truly became a cultural phenomenon. This latte eventually secured its place as the most popular seasonal drink at Starbucks.

Pumpkin spice rose to foodie fame around 2010, as tracked by McCormick’s regular Flavor Forecast reports.

Nowadays, pumpkin and pumpkin spice flavor and scents are found in everything from donuts to creamers to non-food items like hand soap. There’s even a designated National Pumpkin Spice Day. (You might have missed it.)

What drives the pumpkin spice tax?

A 15-ounce can of pumpkin typically costs around a dollar or two at Walmart’s website. The price of a jar of pumpkin spice is similarly low.

So, why do many brands add a markup for pumpkin (or pumpkin spice) products?

“The simple answer is scarcity,” notes Deidre Popovich, a marketing associate professor at Texas Tech University. “These products are only available for a short period, making consumers less sensitive to price changes and more willing to spend extra.”

Put simply, retailers charge more for pumpkin-spiced items “because they can,” Popovich explains. “The market allows it.”

During pumpkin spice season, people often reminisce about nostalgic fall activities—pumpkin pies at family gatherings, changing leaves, enjoying hot cider.

Yet, Popovich admits she won’t miss it when the season ends.

“I find the trend a bit absurd at this point,” she said. “I’ve even noticed things like pumpkin spice dog food.”