Experts in climate science widely agree that human actions are a major factor in climate change. A recent study, led by Bojana Većkalov from the University of Amsterdam and Sandra Geiger from the University of Vienna, reveals that sharing the scientific consensus on climate change can help dispel misunderstandings and reinforce beliefs regarding its reality and origins. The research team conducted a survey with over 10,000 participants across 27 countries on 6 continents. The findings have recently been published in the journal Nature Human Behaviour.
The understanding that humans are primarily responsible for climate change is not a recent development; this consensus began forming in the 1980s. Currently, between 97% and 99.9% of climate scientists agree that climate change is occurring and that human activities are the leading cause. In the last ten years, researchers have examined how effectively communicating this strong consensus influences public perceptions, yielding encouraging outcomes. However, most of this research has been conducted in the United States. “As with many findings in behavioral science, we have limited knowledge about the effects of sharing this consensus outside of the United States. Our study provides an in-depth analysis of these effects,” explains environmental psychologist Sandra Geiger from the University of Vienna.
The international team of 46 researchers presented various scientific consensus messages to over 10,500 individuals and subsequently queried them about their views on climate change. “Our findings validate earlier results from the United States in different regions of the world,” states co-lead author Bojana Većkalov from the University of Amsterdam. In all 27 countries studied, people’s reactions to the scientific consensus regarding climate change’s existence and causes were consistent. Geiger elaborates: “Before being informed about the consensus among climate scientists, individuals underestimated its actual level. After learning about it, they recalibrated their perceptions, exhibited increased belief in climate change, and expressed heightened concern, although they did not show a stronger support for public action on the issue.”
A significant 88% of climate scientists also agree that climate change is a crisis. How do individuals respond upon discovering this additional consensus? Interestingly, this extra information did not significantly influence their opinions. Co-lead author Većkalov suggests: “We think the discrepancy between perceived and actual consensus played a role. For the consensus on the existence and causes of climate change, participants initially thought the consensus was lower than reality, leading them to adjust their beliefs. In contrast, for the crisis consensus, their initial estimates were already close to the actual consensus, leaving little room for change in their beliefs about climate change.”
These new insights underline the importance of continually promoting the consensus among climate scientists, both in media and everyday discussions regarding climate change and its effects. “In light of the growing politicization of science and the proliferation of misinformation, fostering a common understanding of the scientific consensus is crucial for safeguarding public comprehension of this matter,” emphasizes senior author Sander van der Linden from the University of Cambridge. “Additionally, these findings highlight the need to validate prior behavioral science findings on a global scale. Such research endeavors require collaboration among scientists worldwide,” concludes co-lead Sandra Geiger.
