A recent study suggests that shifting to more plant-based diets could result in a 17% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions linked to global food supply chains.
According to researchers, if the 56.9% of the global population that currently overeats were to adopt the planetary health diet proposed by the EAT-Lancet Commission, it could lead to a 32.4% decrease in global dietary emissions.
In their findings published today (August 13) in Nature Climate Change, an international team of researchers observed that transitioning to the planetary health diet could offset the 15.4% rise in emissions from the 43.1% of the population that currently under-eats but moves towards healthier eating.
Within nations, wealthier consumer groups tend to produce higher dietary emissions, largely due to greater consumption of red meat and dairy. This analysis reveals that affluent countries have higher-emission diets but lower inequality levels, whereas poorer nations may have low-emission diets but face greater inequality.
Dr. Yuli Shan, the corresponding author from the University of Birmingham, stated, “Animal-based products are associated with higher emissions compared to plant-based options.”
“We need to address the over-consumption of high-emission foods in wealthier countries, specifically targeting items like beef in Australia and the US for affluent consumers, to achieve significant health and climate benefits.”
The researchers propose implementing incentives such as carbon pricing, eco-labeling, and enhancing the availability of lower-emission options like vegetarian foods to encourage consumers to alter their eating habits.
A well-structured food environment can influence residents’ dietary choices, and better urban planning and infrastructure could eliminate hurdles preventing people from adopting healthier diets.
However, experts point out that in nations like Mongolia, where traditional nomadic lifestyles lead to diets heavily dependent on red meat and dairy, dietary shifts may not be practical, highlighting the need for improved national nutritional education.
Prof. Klaus Hubacek from the University of Groningen noted, “Low-income countries face greater obstacles in achieving healthier diets, with over 1.5 billion people globally unable to afford the planetary health diet.”
“To shift diets, food intake needs to increase, but regions like Sub-Saharan Africa and South and Southeast Asia have seen stagnation in agricultural efficiency for decades, hindering their ability to produce or import the necessary food.”
“Enhancing agricultural efficiency through better crop and soil management, along with the introduction of high-yield crops, is essential. Additionally, the nutrient-rich content of food imports must rise, and restrictive trade policies that increase food costs should be reduced.”
The researchers emphasize that low-income populations often choose cheaper, calorie-rich foods that lack nutritional value. High costs and limited affordability remain significant barriers for these communities, indicating that policy initiatives should focus on making food more affordable and accessible, especially for lower-income groups.
This study investigates the unequal distribution of dietary emissions (including land-use and other related emissions) from 140 food items across 139 regions, covering 95% of the global population. It assesses the level of dietary emissions inequality within countries, based on detailed expenditure data.
According to Yanxian Li, the first author and a PhD student at the University of Groningen, “The aim of the diet shift scenario is to evaluate the potential effects of reducing food system emissions through consumer choice rather than enforcing a single diet across all.”
For a successful transition from meat-based to plant-based diets, significant adjustments to global food production would be required to meet the new demand.
For example, the global supply of red meat would need to decrease by 81%, all sugars by 72%, tubers by 76%, and grains by 50%, while legumes and nuts would need an increase of 438%, added fats by 62%, and produce by 28%.
This shift in food demand could lead to fluctuating prices for agricultural products and land globally, impacting various food categories and sectors, such as increasing biofuel production, slightly countering the positive effects of dietary changes.
