On Monday, a tropical depression developed in the Caribbean, which could increase in strength to become a hurricane later this week, posing a risk to the Gulf Coast, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The system is predicted to strengthen into Tropical Storm Rafael and could reach hurricane status over the next few days as it approaches the Gulf of Mexico, forecasters indicated.

However, due to notable uncertainties surrounding its path and intensity over a longer timeline, it remains too early to accurately assess potential impacts in the U.S., the hurricane center stated.

Alex DaSilva, a lead hurricane expert with AccuWeather, noted, “Historically, there has never been a tropical storm or hurricane that made landfall in Texas, Louisiana, or Mississippi during November and December. This would mark a significant event; however, it does not imply that residents along the central and western Gulf Coast should let down their guard.”

First Impacts Expected in Jamaica and Cuba

By Monday morning, the depression was centered approximately 195 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, with maximum sustained winds reaching 35 mph, along with stronger gusts.

The hurricane center advised that a northwestward movement is anticipated throughout the day, continuing in the coming days. The system is likely to pass near Jamaica by Monday evening, approach the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and reach Cuba on Wednesday.

Forecasters mentioned that “the system could attain hurricane-level intensity as it approaches the Cayman Islands and Cuba.”

The National Hurricane Center forecasts tropical storm conditions in Jamaica by Monday evening, with possible hurricane conditions in the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon. Areas in the Western Caribbean are anticipated to receive heavy rainfall, especially Jamaica and parts of Cuba, through midweek.

Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches and localized totals reaching up to 9 inches are likely, which could result in flooding and mudslides in certain regions of Jamaica and Cuba, as per the NHC.

In three to four days, as the system reaches the central Gulf, an increase in vertical wind shear, along with drier air and slightly cooler water temperatures, are expected to halt the strengthening process and cause weakening, according to forecasters.

Patty No Longer a Tropical Cyclone

The hurricane center reported on Monday that Patty is no longer classified as a tropical storm or cyclone, as it has moved across the far eastern Atlantic Ocean.

“The remnants of Patty will shift towards the east-northeast later today,” the center added. “Between tonight and Tuesday, heavy rainfall is possible in portions of Portugal and western Spain due to Patty’s remnants.”