of climate change on malaria transmission in Africa has been developed, which could result in more effective interventions to control the disease. Traditional methods have relied on rainfall as an indicator of mosquito breeding grounds, but this new study utilized various climate and hydrological models to incorporate real-world processes such as evaporation, infiltration, and river flow. This innovative approach has provided a more comprehensive understanding of the conditions favorable for malaria in Africa.
The impact of climate change on the spread of malaria in Africa may result in more precise measures to control the disease, as per a recent study. Previous techniques relied on measuring rainfall levels to determine the availability of water for mosquito breeding. However, the research conducted by the University of Leeds utilized various climatic and hydrological models to account for real-world processes such as evaporation, infiltration, and river flow. This innovative approach has provided a more comprehensive understanding of the conditions favorable for malaria in Africa. Additionally, it has emphasized the significance of water in the transmission of the disease.The Zambezi River plays a significant role in the spread of malaria, as it was found that almost four times the population previously estimated to live in areas suitable for malaria for up to nine months of the year. The study titled “Future malaria environmental suitability in Africa is sensitive to hydrology” was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council and is available in the journal Science as of May 9, 2024. Dr. Mark Smith, an Associate Professor in Water Research at the Leeds’ School of Geography and the lead author of the study, stated, “This will give us a more physically realistic estimate of where in Africa is.”The future of malaria could either improve or worsen as more detailed estimates of water flows become accessible. This understanding can help prioritize and customize malaria interventions in a more targeted and informed manner. This is particularly valuable due to the limited health resources often available. Malaria is a disease transmitted by vectors that is sensitive to climate, causing 608,000 deaths out of 249 million cases in 2022. Africa reports 95% of global cases, but reductions in cases have slowed or even reversed in recent years, partly due to a stall in efforts to combat the disease.in malaria suitability in parts of the Horn of Africa and the highlands of East Africa are greater than previously estimated.
Overall, the study’s findings support the idea that controlling greenhouse gas emissions can have a significant impact on malaria suitability in the future. The research highlights the importance of considering hydrological changes in malaria suitability assessments and suggests that global efforts to combat climate change could also contribute to malaria control.In South Africa, there is a shift in the malaria patterns, with mosquitoes now being found near watercourses like the Orange River.
The study’s co-author, Professor Chris Thomas from the University of Lincoln, pointed out that the new models take into account the fact that not all water remains in one place after rainfall, leading to more breeding grounds for malaria-carrying mosquitoes. This is particularly true along major river floodplains in the arid, savannah regions commonly found in many parts of Africa.
The study also revealed that the duration of the season is surprisingly sensitive to climate change, which can significantly impact the spread of the disease.”
SimGosling, a Professor of Climate Risks & Environmental Modelling at the University of Nottingham, was one of the co-authors of the study and played a role in coordinating the water modelling experiments used in the research. He pointed out that the study brings attention to the complex ways in which changes in surface water flows can impact the transmission of malaria across Africa. This was made possible through a significant research program carried out by the global hydrological modelling community, which gathered and provided estimates of the impacts of climate change on water flows worldwide.
“While it may seem like there will be an overall reduction in the future risk of malaria, this should not be underestimated.
Although there is good news, it comes with a downside of reduced water availability and an increased risk of another significant disease, dengue.”
The researchers are optimistic that further advancements in their modeling will enable more detailed insights into waterbody dynamics, which could in turn inform national malaria control strategies.
Dr. Smith also mentioned, “We are approaching a point where we can use globally available data to not only identify possible mosquito habitats, but also predict which species are likely to breed in specific areas. This would enable targeted interventions against these insects.”
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