With just two weeks left in the presidential campaign, candidates are employing traditional strategies like persuasion and mobilizing voters. However, there might be a lesser-known tactic that could be useful.

As many of my readers know, I frequently discuss the understated impact of third-party candidates in closely contested elections. This is why we assess all candidates listed on state ballots during tight races in our Suffolk University/YSL News polls.

Our most recent Suffolk University/YSL News poll shows a virtual tie among likely voters in a five-way ballot scenario. Democrat Kamala Harris leads with 45%, followed closely by Republican Donald Trump at 44%. Independent Cornel West, Green Party’s Jill Stein, and Libertarian Chase Oliver each hold 1%. Meanwhile, 5% remain undecided, and 3% declined to answer. In a two-way ballot assessment, Harris maintains a narrow lead of one point (50%-49%) with 1% undecided.

The understated influence of third-party Candidates

Back in 2016, both Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein (the same Jill Stein) attracted more votes in the three “blue wall” states than Hillary Clinton’s losing margin:

• Michigan: 172,136 votes for Johnson, 51,463 for Stein, with Clinton losing by 10,704 votes.
• Pennsylvania: 146,715 votes for Johnson, 49,941 for Stein, with Clinton’s margin at 44,292 votes.
• Wisconsin: 106,674 votes for Johnson, 31,072 for Stein, resulting in a loss margin of 22,748 votes for Clinton.

It’s hard to imagine that progressive environmental supporters would choose Trump over Clinton if Stein wasn’t a candidate, but we can only speculate.

In the 2020 election, Libertarian Jo Jorgensen, the most significant third-party runner, received votes that exceeded Trump’s loss margins in Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin:

• Arizona: 51,465 votes for Jorgensen, 10,457 margin.
• Georgia: 62,229 votes for Jorgensen, 11,779 margin.
• Wisconsin: 38,491 votes for Jorgensen, 20,682 margin.

Without the business-friendly Libertarian option on those ballots, Trump would likely have fared better. While this is a generalization, it illustrates the importance of these candidates.

Strategic ballot positioning

Looking ahead to 2024, we must consider the available ballot options. While it’s too late to eliminate third-party candidates from the ballot, both Harris and Trump could instead focus on influencing voters who lean towards their opponents to choose these other candidates.

This strategy explains why RFK Jr. attempted to withdraw from the Michigan and Wisconsin ballots after endorsing Trump; he recognized the potential damage his candidacy could inflict on Trump.

Democratic Strategy: “Chase Chase”

Democratic strategists could target moderate Trump supporters, those who are not inclined to vote for Harris and may reluctantly choose Trump, steering them towards Chase Oliver, a Libertarian candidate who embodies conservative values without the Trump label.

The message could be: “Send a message to the Republican Party and vote for your principles.” In Pennsylvania, these voters may be concentrated in regions where Nikki Haley achieved stronger-than-expected results in the Republican Primary: Chester, Cumberland, Dauphin, Delaware, Erie, Lancaster, and Montgomery.

Republican Strategy: “Stein is Fine”

On the Republican side, strategies could focus on enticing moderate Harris supporters—those unlikely to vote for Trump but disheartened by Harris’s policies (due to issues like the Israel-Hamas conflict, fracking, or financial concerns)—towards voting for Jill Stein, who is recognized for her environmental advocacy (and has been active in pro-Palestinian demonstrations).

The pitch here could be: “Send a message to the Democratic Party and vote for your principles.” In Pennsylvania, key counties with these sympathetic voters include Beaver, Cambria, Fayette, Lawrence, and Schuylkill, where the Dean Phillips/write-in votes in the Democratic Primary signified dissatisfaction with Biden-Harris.

Exploring other avenues

This strategy of promoting Stein and Oliver can be applied across the closely contested blue wall states. Michigan and Wisconsin present even more third-party options compared to Pennsylvania, including Cornel West, who could appeal to older, more traditional Democratic Black voters as a familiar face from academia and activism.

Additionally, candidates like RFK can actually benefit Harris simply by being on the ballot in these states, as can Constitution Party nominee Randall Terry, who might attract pro-life voters away from Trump.

The two major political parties are becoming more proactive in promoting third-party candidates, recognizing their significant role in the electoral process.