WASHINGTON – President Joe Biden expressed his fury after Hamas launched an attack on southern Israel last October, resulting in the deaths of 1,200 people and the abduction of 250 more during a shocking early morning assault.

“There are moments in life when true, unfiltered evil is unleashed in this world,” Biden said from the White House State Dining Room just three days after the devastating attack on October 7, 2023.

“This attack,” he remarked about the most lethal incident against Jews since the Holocaust, “was an act of pure evil.”

One year later, the violent conflict ignited by those attacks shows no signs of abating, despite U.S. efforts to broker a ceasefire and a deal for hostage release. Moreover, longtime fears held by Biden and other Western leaders that the situation might escalate into a broader regional war now seem alarmingly plausible.

Only last week, the situation intensified when Iran launched a significant missile strike against Israel following the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, a militant group supported by Iran and an ally of Hamas. Israel has vowed to retaliate, escalating concerns that this local conflict could spiral into a wider Middle Eastern war.

For Biden, who is grappling with political pressures at home amidst a divisive presidential election season where his vice president is vying to take over, the Israel-Hamas conflict has posed significant challenges. It has put a strain on U.S.-Israel relations, tested his influence globally, and led to heavy criticism about whether his administration has adequately supported Israel or gone too far.

Criticism of Biden’s handling of the conflict has diminished his support among Arab-Americans and progressives, groups crucial for any Democrat looking to secure a second term, just as the election season was beginning. Questions regarding his popularity and fitness to serve another term have raised doubts about his chances against former President Donald Trump, the expected Republican contender, in November.

Now in a tenuous position, Biden enters his last three months in office with the sobering understanding that the conflict will likely continue beyond his presidency, leaving Harris or Trump to face the consequences.

‘We will not sit idly by’

Eleven days after the incursion by Hamas, Biden took a quick trip to Tel Aviv aboard Air Force One.

His message to Israelis and the world was clear: the United States stands firmly with Israel.

Upon arriving at Ben-Gurion International Airport, Biden embraced Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, symbolizing unity. In comments to the press, he likened the Hamas attack to the horrors of the Holocaust.

“The world witnessed that tragedy and did nothing,” he stated. “We will not allow history to repeat itself.”

In the following months, the Biden administration would furnish Israel with billions worth of military aid and equipment, despite concerns that the fighting in Gaza could spread. The U.S. provided a diverse arsenal of weapons, including fighter jets, surface-to-air missiles, tank munitions, high explosive mortars, and tactical vehicles as Israel carried out its military campaign.

Biden and Netanyahu’s relationship spans decades, with their interactions beginning when Biden served as a senator on the Foreign Relations Committee, and Netanyahu was at the U.S. Embassy in Washington and later at the United Nations. Their relationship has sometimes been close, and at other times strained by diplomatic misunderstandings and deep policy divides.

The conflict in Gaza marked yet another challenge as the extent of Israel’s offensive on Palestinian territories became apparent. According to the Palestinian health ministry run by Hamas, over 41,000 Palestinians have died. Neighborhoods have been devastated. Schools and hospitals have been bombed. Nearly 2 million Palestinians are now displaced, facing widespread disease and starvation.

In the U.S., protests erupted in cities and on college campuses nationwide. Supporters of Israel criticized Biden for not adequately supporting its ally, while pro-Palestinian activists condemned the significant humanitarian toll of the war, chastised the U.S. for supplying arms to Israel, and urged Biden to call for an immediate ceasefire. By the end of 2023, incidents of antisemitism in the U.S. surged by 140%, a record high, according to the Anti-Defamation League.

By December, Biden cautioned Netanyahu that Israel was losing global support due to the war. Five months later, in May, his administration opted not to send a shipment of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel due to concerns that Netanyahu was planning a full-scale strike on the heavily populated city of Rafah in southern Gaza. Biden and his team feared that these advanced munitions wouldn’t be suitable for use in Gaza or any other densely populated areas without leading to widespread casualties and distress.

“We are not abandoning Israel’s security,” Biden stated to CNN. “We are reassessing Israel’s capacity to engage in warfare in those regions.”

In response to the halted shipment of weapons, Netanyahu expressed during a speech that Israel is prepared to act independently if required.

The hostilities persisted.

In July, Israel retaliated against Hezbollah, which had been launching rockets into northern Israel since the war began, by conducting airstrikes in Beirut.

This marked the beginning of more severe developments. Two months later, devices like pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah operatives suddenly detonated in Lebanon, resulting in the deaths of at least 37 individuals, including children, and nearly 3,000 injuries. Israel was thought to have orchestrated the attack. Netanyahu vowed to pursue and hold accountable those responsible, wherever they may be.

Western leaders should recognize that “defeating the perpetrators of October 7 ensures we prevent the next September 11,” asserted Netanyahu.

In late July, Hamas’s leading political figure, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in an assassination at his home in Tehran, which the organization and Iran attributed to Israel.

The conflict escalated further with Israel’s assassination of Nasrallah, the Hezbollah chief, in an airstrike in Beirut last month, followed by Iran’s missile assault on Israel last week. Iran launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles targeting various locations in Israel, most of which were intercepted with assistance from U.S. Navy destroyers stationed in the eastern Mediterranean. This was Iran’s second strike on Israel this year; in April, they fired 300 missiles and drones at Israel.

What lies ahead?

As the one-year anniversary of the October 7 assault approaches, the world is eager to see how and when Israel will react to Iran’s missile barrage.

Recently, Israel initiated a ground offensive in northern Lebanon aimed at Hezbollah, resulting in the deaths of eight Israeli soldiers and injuries to seven others during a skirmish on Wednesday. By week’s end, the Israeli military had advised civilians in at least 20 cities to evacuate as it continued its ground operations against Hezbollah.

In Washington, Biden indicated that his administration was contemplating sanctions against Iran due to its airstrike on Israel. He urged Israel to retaliate “proportionally” and mentioned discussions on whether Israel should be permitted to conduct airstrikes on Iranian oil facilities.

The Israel-Hamas conflict has presented “a transformative period in understanding the Middle East,” noted Mara Karlin, a foreign policy authority and former advisor to six secretaries of defense in the Biden, Obama, and Bush administrations.

The current concern is whether Israel’s reaction to Iran will be a minimal response aimed merely at deterring further assaults or if it will be part of a broader strategy, she added.

Meanwhile, Biden continues to encounter criticism as his administration strives to facilitate diplomatic negotiations for a cease-fire in Gaza. Diplomatic teams from the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar have been working for weeks to establish a temporary cease-fire and a framework for hostages’ release. On several occasions, they have believed an agreement was imminent, yet it remains out of reach. Biden has stated that only Hamas is obstructing progress.

A significant challenge for the Biden administration in navigating the Gaza conflict has been Netanyahu, commented Chuck Hagel, a former defense secretary who served alongside Biden in the Senate.

“Netanyahu is not an effective leader,” Hagel stated. “I’ve known him for years. Biden is faced with the difficulty of dealing with an Israeli leader who hasn’t always been transparent with us and has played intricate games. That’s the fact.”

The Biden administration’s efforts have been hampered by Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, whose agendas do not consistently align with U.S. interests, remarked Aaron David Miller, a Middle East analyst with over 20 years of experience in the State Department advising both Democratic and Republican secretaries of state.

“While diplomacy is crucial,” Miller added, “it requires a sense of urgency. The lack of urgency from the primary decision-makers has hindered the administration from finalizing what could be a feasible agreement between Israel and Hamas, at least to begin reducing hostilities.”

Critics hold the Biden administration responsible for actions that, they argue, have restricted Israel’s capacity to conduct its military operations.

The administration has not effectively pursued “a sensible foreign policy” concerning Israel, said Elliott Abrams, a Middle East specialist who served as deputy national security advisor under Bush. The U.S., he noted, seems to imply, “we want to assist you in your defense – but, for heaven’s sake, do not attempt to conquer.”

According to him, Israel’s stance has been, “that’s misguided advice, and we refuse to adhere to it.”

Bradley Bowman from The Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a nonprofit think tank in Washington, criticizes the administration’s public disapproval of how Israel has been engaged in a conflict in Gaza.

“When your closest friend or ally in the Middle East is going through its most challenging times, you shouldn’t side with the bullies or terrorists against your friend when they are down,” remarked Bowman, who leads the Center on Military and Political Power at the foundation.

“If you have reservations or issues with your friend or ally, you should communicate those concerns privately,” Bowman continued. “Publicly criticizing your friend during their most critical moments only aids our mutual adversaries.”

He added that such actions could lead to more aggression towards Israel, increase suffering, prolong conflicts, and harm American interests.

In three months, this issue may not be President Biden’s responsibility anymore. Due to the recent developments, it’s likely that the next president, whether it’s Harris or Trump, will have to deal with the ongoing crisis in Gaza—and perhaps even a broader conflict in the Middle East.