A recent study reveals that certain marine species might disappear within the next hundred years if human-driven global warming continues to escalate.
A recent study reveals that certain marine species might disappear within the next hundred years if human-driven global warming continues to escalate.
Conducted by researchers at the University of Bristol and published today in Nature, this study is the first to compare how tiny marine organisms known as plankton reacted during a significant warming event in ancient history with predictions for how they may respond in the coming century under similar climate conditions.
The results indicated that plankton may not be able to adapt quickly enough to the current rate of increasing temperatures, which poses a severe risk to many marine species, including fish that rely on these organisms as a food source.
Dr. Rui Ying, the lead researcher and PhD student specializing in marine ecology at the University of Bristol, expressed concern, stating: “The findings are troubling. Even under more conservative climate scenarios predicting a rise of 2°C, it’s evident that plankton cannot adapt rapidly enough to the quicker rate of warming we’re currently experiencing, which is expected to persist.”
“Plankton are essential to ocean health, forming the basis of the marine food web and playing a crucial role in carbon storage. If their survival is threatened, it could lead to a major disruption of marine ecosystems, severely impacting both marine life and human food sources.”
To draw these conclusions, the team created a novel model to examine the behavior of plankton during the last Ice Age, roughly 21,000 years ago, alongside predictions for their potential responses to future climate scenarios. This model focuses on a particular group of plankton that has survived through various geological epochs, providing valuable insights with high accuracy.
Dr. Ying added: “Studying the past is often critical to understanding what future conditions may look like. Geological evidence shows that plankton used to shift away from warmer seas to persist.”
“However, using the same ecological and climatic models indicates that the current and projected rates of warming are too great for such migration to occur again, possibly leading to the extinction of these vital organisms.”
As part of the Paris Agreement, 196 countries committed to keeping the increase in global average temperatures below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with a goal of capping it at 1.5°C. Nonetheless, a report from the United Nations last month warned that global temperatures could rise by as much as 3.1°C if more decisive actions are not taken to curb carbon emissions.
Co-author Daniela Schmidt, a Professor of Earth Sciences at the University of Bristol and a marine ecologist involved in various reports for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), remarked: “This research underscores the severe risks associated with the rapid climate and environmental changes the world is currently experiencing. As these worrisome trends are poised to intensify, there will be significant repercussions for ecosystems and the livelihoods of people, especially those in fishing communities. The message is clear: all countries must enhance their efforts to minimize global warming.”
