It has been nearly three months since Notre Dame suffered a surprising 16-14 defeat to Northern Illinois, a shocking outcome in this season. Each week that passes highlights two clear points:

First, that loss appears to be an outlier. Since then, Notre Dame has achieved nine consecutive victories, with only one of those games being close.

Second, although Notre Dame has faced a less challenging schedule than many contenders in the College Football Playoff, the No. 5 Fighting Irish have solidly positioned themselves for a playoff spot as they enter their regular-season finale against Southern California on Saturday.

They’ve received some assistance along the way. Developments in the top-heavy ACC, SEC, and Big 12 have created opportunities for Notre Dame, meaning they could still qualify for the playoffs even with a loss to the Trojans, though such a scenario would amplify concerns about their average strength of schedule.

“I always tell you all to interpret the message sent by these playoff discussions as you see fit,” Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman remarked after last Saturday’s 49-14 victory over Army.

“Our sole focus on Saturdays is to achieve team success. The way we prepare is key to reaching that goal. That’s the main message I want to communicate to our players. If we prepare effectively, work on improving ourselves, we can achieve the results we want. I’m more concerned with the message for our team and our program than with how it might be perceived externally.”

The implications for the game are clear: Win, and you secure a playoff spot. Lose, and you risk falling out of contention altogether. How Notre Dame performs against the Trojans will determine their season’s success and influence the narrative around Freeman’s coaching tenure.

“Our players will recognize the challenge that’s in front of us,” Freeman stated.

Notre Dame’s Path to the Playoffs

This week, televisions at Notre Dame’s football facility have been playing the 2022 loss to USC repeatedly, reminding players of “the feeling from a couple of years ago,” according to wide receiver Beaux Collins.

“We’ve almost memorized all the plays from that game,” Collins noted. “It’s a reminder of how crucial this game is.”

The 2022 matchup—where Notre Dame allowed 436 yards of offense and lost 38-27—reflects the challenges Freeman has faced thus far; his tenure has been marked more by missed opportunities than by victories. Northern Illinois is a current example, while last year saw disappointing losses to teams like Marshall and Stanford.

The Irish are favored by a touchdown against USC, who secured bowl eligibility with a victory over UCLA last week. The Trojans have improved defensively under new coordinator D’Anton Lynn but have struggled offensively, prompting a switch to former backup quarterback Jayden Maiava this month.

“They have a lot of talent,” Lynn said of Notre Dame. “Their offensive line is likely the best we will face all season. Both of their running backs are excellent. They also possess large tight ends and have speed on the outside.”

Notre Dame and No. 4 Penn State are the only two teams entering Saturday with a guaranteed playoff spot if they win. Meanwhile, No. 1 Oregon and No. 2 Ohio State are already considered locks for the playoffs regardless of results over the next two weeks. Teams like No. 8 Tennessee and No. 10 Indiana are also in good standing, but various outcomes could complicate their situations.

A loss to USC would mark only Notre Dame’s second defeat this season but could potentially pave the way for another ACC team or a fourth SEC team to gain an at-large bid, particularly if No. 13 Alabama overcomes Auburn in the Iron Bowl or if No. 14 South Carolina triumphs over No. 12 Clemson.

“Yes, our past performances have positioned us for this opportunity: a game where a win secures our place in the playoffs,” Freeman affirmed. “The saying holds true—win, and you’re in.”

A Defining Moment for Marcus Freeman

An important storyline leading up to Saturday is Freeman’s chance to reshape the narrative surrounding his three-year tenure. Despite Notre Dame’s impressive nine-game winning streak since September, there have been too many missed opportunities that have defined this period.

“We’ll need to be at our absolute best this Saturday,” said offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock. “They are more than capable of performing at a level worthy of a championship. We must meet that challenge with readiness.”

This is a moment the program has typically struggled with under Freeman’s leadership. Since his arrival, Notre Dame has endured two defeats to Ohio State, failing to capitalize on significant chances for marquee wins. Additionally, the Irish’s away game performance has been shaky, with a 7-4 record in true regular-season road contests.

The ongoing discontent surrounding the program’s struggle to succeed and make it back into the playoffs has intensified. Under former coach Brian Kelly, Notre Dame reached the national semifinals twice and secured another prestigious bowl game in his final four seasons.

A victory on Saturday could not only secure a home game for the opening playoff round but also propel the Irish back among the elite teams in the Bowl Subdivision. If they make it to the playoffs, their strong performance since September could make them a popular choice to progress far into the postseason and possibly win their first national championship since 1988.

Recently, the Irish have dominated their last nine opponents, winning by an average of over 30 points per game, with only one narrow victory against Louisville.

Freeman stated, “If you fail to grasp how formidable this opponent is or the challenge they pose for Saturday, the responsibility lies with you.” He continued, “I will keep reminding our team. We’ve made strategic moves to elevate our program, so it’s crucial to recognize the challenge that awaits us on Saturday and to keep putting in the necessary effort today to achieve the desired outcome.”