Political Impacts of Disasters: Donald Trump and Kamala Harris Face the Consequences
WASHINGTON – Another presidential race is being challenged by a hurricane.
Politically, Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden are optimistic that the recovery efforts from Hurricane Helene will mirror the federal response to Hurricane Sandy in 2012 — a mostly effective process that benefited the last Democratic administration during election time.
In contrast, former President Donald Trump is aiming to transform the latest natural disaster into a negative example for the Harris-Biden administration, reminiscent of the inadequate response to Hurricane Andrew in 1992, which contributed to the political downfall of President George H.W. Bush.
“Nobody is handling a hurricane or storm worse than they are right now,” Trump stated to supporters in Saginaw, Michigan, on Thursday night.
Trump’s statements have included inaccuracies; he alleged that federal disaster funds were given to migrants and that Georgia GOP Governor Brian Kemp struggled to contact Biden, both of which were untrue. The 2024 Republican presidential candidate has also faced accusations of politicizing disaster relief during his administration.
During his visit to the areas devastated in Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, and South Carolina, Biden encouraged people to set aside political differences to assist as many hurricane victims as possible.
“I hope that as we do this, we can start to dismantle this intense partisanship that exists,” Biden expressed while in Ray City, Georgia. “There’s really no reason for it.”
The debate over hurricane responses this election year is especially intense in Georgia and North Carolina, key swing states impacted by the storm, which are seeing candidate visits this week.
In Augusta, Georgia, Harris refrained from directly naming Trump, instead telling residents, “We are committed to being here for the long haul. The coordination we have pledged to ensure will be ongoing to assist families, residents, and neighborhoods in their recovery.”
The Long History of Disaster Politics
Disaster politics have always played a significant role in presidential races, from the flu epidemic following World War I to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
Typically, fall campaigns coincide with flu season, but any disaster and the government’s response can drastically shift the political landscape in America.
During the catastrophic Great Mississippi River Flood of 1927, President Calvin Coolidge appointed an influential official to lead relief efforts: Commerce Secretary Herbert Hoover.
Hoover, already well-known for his food relief initiatives in Belgium during World War I, leveraged flood relief efforts to advance his political career, culminating in his election to the White House (though he later faced the Great Depression, but that’s a different story).
In 1965, President Lyndon Johnson set a precedent for future leaders by personally overseeing recovery operations in Louisiana after the devastation of Hurricane Betsy.
“Presidents, as the chief executives and the only leaders chosen by the entire nation, are expected to take actions that will protect and assist Americans,” noted political scientist Lara Brown, author of “Jockeying for the American Presidency: The Political Opportunism of Aspirants.”
“In times of disaster,” she added, “citizens look to presidents to evaluate how closely their compassionate promises align with their actions.”
1992: A lesson for future leaders
A notable lesson can be drawn from the experience of President George Herbert Walker Bush.
As he aimed for re-election in 1992, Bush was already struggling due to a weakening economy and a strong challenge from Democrat Bill Clinton.
In August, Hurricane Andrew struck the southern coast of Florida.
Historian Timothy Naftali mentioned in Bush’s biography that it “took far too many days for the federal government to respond adequately.”
In the end, Bush lost a three-way race that included independent candidate Ross Perot, although he narrowly won Florida.
Another lesson learned: Katrina
His son, Republican George W. Bush, was proactive when four hurricanes hit Florida within a six-week timeframe during the 2004 hurricane season, which was also an election year.
However, the following year, after securing re-election, Bush faced backlash for a poorly managed response to Hurricane Katrina, which demonstrated what should be avoided.
In his memoirs, Bush reflected that his failures in the response to Katrina, combined with issues like the setback on Social Security reform and ongoing violence in Iraq, made late 2005 a challenging time for his presidency.
The memories of Katrina are so strong that former President Trump—who is not particularly fond of the Bush family—brought it up during a speech in Michigan.
“I will not mention names, but a certain president ruined his reputation with Katrina,” Trump said while in Saginaw.
Collaboration during Hurricane Sandy
In October 2012, President Barack Obama had a more favorable response when Hurricane Sandy devastated the New Jersey coast.
Obama showcased collaboration with Republican New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, which contributed to his successful re-election against GOP candidate Mitt Romney.
When Christie later ran for president in 2016, he faced criticism from fellow Republicans for his cooperation with Obama. One of his primary opponents mockingly claimed that Christie acted like “a little boy: ‘oh, I’m with the president.'”
That rival, Donald Trump, said, “Remember how he flew in the helicopter and was all excited? I said, ‘I would have put you in my helicopter – it’s way nicer.'”
Mike DuHaime, a former advisor to Christie, stated that voters in New Jersey appreciated Christie’s partnership with Obama and re-elected him as governor in 2014 overwhelmingly.
However, DuHaime noted that Republican voters “punished” Christie during his presidential bid, as if cooperating with federal efforts during such a significant natural disaster was a misstep.
He concluded, “Somewhere along the way, the terms compromise and bipartisanship have turned into negative connotations for the far right and far left.”
Viewing through a political lens
As Trump criticizes Harris and Biden regarding Hurricane Helene, some of his former officials have noted that he himself engaged in political maneuvering with disaster relief efforts during his time in office.
A report by Politico’s E&E News, based on interviews with two former aides to Trump, indicates that he was reluctant to deliver disaster assistance to regions he perceived as leaning Democratic, such as California during its wildfires.
Biden shared the article on social media, commenting on its claims: “You can’t only assist those in distress based on their voting preferences.”
“This is a fundamental responsibility of the presidency, and he clearly does not grasp it,” added the president.
In response, Trump campaign representative Steven Cheung dismissed the report as “fake news,” asserting that it was entirely false. “This account is not accurate and is merely the product of someone’s misguided imagination,” Cheung stated to YSL News.
Olivia Troye, one of the former officials referenced by E&E News, expressed her frustration over Trump’s recent comments regarding disaster aid. In an interview with YSL News, she remarked, “It’s distressing to see Trump making accusations about others when it comes to disaster relief.”
“We do not evaluate disaster aid through a political perspective,” Troye emphasized.
