The hefty expense associated with the installation of heat pumps for residential heating may hinder widespread acceptance of this technology, potentially causing government objectives to be overlooked, according to research findings.
A study indicates that there has been minimal to no decrease in the average installation cost of eco-friendly heating systems in the UK over the past ten years.
While forecasts predict a drop of 20 to 25 percent in installation costs by 2030, this falls considerably short of the ambitions set by UK policymakers, as experts point out.
Currently, heat pumps are only slightly utilized for home heating in the UK. While the number of installations is increasing, it still lags behind more traditional heating systems that rely on fossil fuels.
The researchers emphasize the importance of creating policy goals that are grounded in realistic evaluations of potential cost reductions and developing incentives aimed at addressing the high initial costs of certain low-carbon technologies.
Proponents of heat pumps argue that beyond helping to decarbonize home heating, they also provide energy security, efficiency advantages, and the potential for lower, more stable energy bills.
In their analysis, researchers from the University of Edinburgh and Imperial College London employed systematic evidence review techniques to examine historical and forecasted data regarding the costs of installing domestic heat pumps.
This analysis considered various factors impacting heat pump cost data such as the type of residence, design of the technology, and the broader heating system context.
They also looked into both equipment and non-equipment expenses, evaluating factors that influence these costs, including global manufacturing supply chains and local labor conditions.
The researchers discovered that, unlike modest reductions seen internationally, there has been no notable decline in the average installed cost of heat pumps in the UK in the last decade.
That said, there are expectations for reduced installation costs in the UK. Forecasts suggest that by 2030, total installation costs could drop by around 20-25 percent, with anticipated savings likely to be greater for non-equipment costs—thanks to more efficient installation practices—than for equipment costs.
Nonetheless, the researchers caution that while cost reductions may be on the horizon, they are unlikely to occur quickly or significantly enough to align with UK policy objectives.
Dr. Mark Winskel from the University of Edinburgh’s School of Social and Political Science remarked, “There is a growing consensus in policy circles regarding the critical role heat pumps will play in decarbonizing home heating, but there are persistent economic challenges. Our findings underscore the necessity for realistic expectations regarding reductions in installed costs for heat pumps. Additionally, we recommend introducing targeted support measures to better reflect their competitive operational costs and broader advantages.”
This study appears in the journal Applied Energy. The research was conducted under the UK Energy Research Centre initiative, supported by the Energy and Decarbonisation theme from UK Research and Innovation.
