For many years, the largest cities in the United States relied heavily on young Americans for their growth.

Now, these young people are departing from major metropolitan areas and are contributing to the increase in small towns and rural locales.

According to a University of Virginia study that analyzed U.S. Census Bureau data, cities with populations exceeding 1 million have seen a decline in residents aged 25 to 44, while smaller towns are experiencing growth in this age group, factoring in both newcomers and those leaving.

“The shift towards small towns and rural areas has mostly been driven by younger adults since the pandemic,” stated Hamilton Lombard, the study’s author and a demographer at the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service.

During the height of the pandemic, many Americans, regardless of age, moved to less densely populated areas due to concerns over health risks. However, even as COVID-19 concerns have significantly subsided, the trend of remote work that gained momentum during the pandemic, coupled with lower living costs in smaller cities, continues to motivate young Americans to settle in rural regions, according to Lombard.

“The movement of younger adults to more rural areas has gained momentum last year instead of reverting to pre-pandemic trends,” he explained.

If this trend continues, it could potentially lessen the vibrancy of large cities that have already faced setbacks due to the COVID-19 pandemic while strengthening the economic stability of smaller towns.

When did people start migrating to big cities?

Large cities experienced a decline in population during the 1960s and 1970s, but in the 1980s and 1990s, they saw revitalization as many white-collar jobs clustered there, benefiting from easier communication and networking. Young professionals were drawn to cities for job opportunities and various cultural amenities.

Since 1980, approximately 80% of the increase in the population under 45 has taken place in metropolitan areas with populations over 1 million, as per Lombard’s findings. In contrast, the number of people in that age group in small towns is smaller today compared to 1980.

Even though young Americans historically preferred large cities, interest began shifting toward rural areas around 2017. Cities started losing younger residents as living expenses soared and many millennials, now in their 30s, sought larger homes for their growing families. Nevertheless, Lombard mentioned that despite a declining birth rate limiting the influx of young workers as baby boomers retire, large cities were still expected to attract many young workers due to promising salaries and rich amenities entering the 2020s.

How has the pandemic impacted cities?

The pandemic dramatically changed this pattern. From 2020 onward, two-thirds of the growth in the 25-44 age demographic occurred in either rural areas or metropolitan areas with populations under one million. In contrast, from 2010 to 2020, 90% of these demographic gains were concentrated in the largest metropolitan areas with more than 4 million residents, according to the study.

Younger individuals aren’t the only ones moving toward small-town America; counties within large metro areas have seen a loss of 750,000 residents of all ages in 2021, 650,000 in 2022, and 550,000 in 2023, as identified in a Goldman Sachs analysis using Census Bureau data from May.

When the health crisis began to ease, Lombard anticipated young Americans would return to supporting the recovery of large cities.

Instead, the trend of younger adults relocating to small towns took an unexpected upturn last year. Between 2020 and 2023, young individuals accounted for 54% of the growth in populations in areas with fewer than 250,000 residents, while older Americans aged 65 and above made up the remaining percentage, according to the report.

Historically, population growth in less populated towns and rural areas mainly stemmed from older adults, Lombard explained.

While many individuals in their late 30s and early 40s are leaving large cities for bigger homes in more affordable locations, the overall trend for those aged 25 to 34 remains unchanged, Lombard added. Since 2020, areas with populations below 1 million have seen a significant influx of 25- to 34-year-olds, while densely populated regions have lost them.

Where is Generation Z relocating to in 2024?

One segment of the population returning to large cities is the 18 to 24-year-olds, representing part of Generation Z (ages 17-27), with more in this group moving to cities than leaving, according to Adam Kamins, a regional economist with Moody’s Analytics. This demographic still finds the “lifestyle and amenities associated with large cities” appealing, Kamins noted.

However, Lombard stated that the growth of 18- to 24-year-olds in urban areas can be attributed to a higher number of colleges and greater student enrollment in big cities.

How does remote work influence city living?

The prospects of individuals aged 25 to 44 moving back to large metropolitan areas do not appear promising.

Lombard pointed out a trend toward remote work, which has stabilized, as firms begin mandating employees to return to the office at least part-time. Goldman Sachs reported that the proportion of U.S. workers working from home has remained steady between 20% and 25%. This stability has permitted more young Americans to reside in smaller towns that boast open spaces, natural beauty, and lower expenses.

Due to the dramatic increase in home prices and rents in major cities, many young individuals are moving towards smaller, more affordable locations. For instance, according to ZipRecruiter, the average hourly wage in San Francisco stands at $46, while it is only $20 in Jefferson, Georgia, a town with a population of 13,233.

However, as Lombard pointed out, the greater salaries in big cities don’t make up for the significantly higher living expenses. The average house cost in San Francisco reaches $1.3 million, in contrast to $410,900 in Jefferson, as reported by Zillow. Between 2020 and 2023, there was a 7% decrease in the population of 25- to 44-year-olds in San Francisco, while Jefferson experienced a 19% increase in this age group, according to the report.

At the same time, ongoing labor shortages are expected to compel employers to maintain remote work opportunities and drive wages up in smaller towns, improving their economic prospects while complicating circumstances for larger cities.

“This is likely to profoundly affect the vibrancy of downtown areas in several major cities,” said Lombard. He also noted that these metropolitan regions could adapt by enhancing long-distance train services and increasing regional flight options, allowing those living outside the city limits to commute effectively.