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HomeLocalUnderstanding the Dynamics of a GOP Trifecta: What Lies Ahead

Understanding the Dynamics of a GOP Trifecta: What Lies Ahead

 

 

What to anticipate with a GOP trifecta


WASHINGTON – The 2024 election was a significant victory for Republicans, as President-elect Donald Trump reclaimed the White House, the Senate flipped in their favor, and they seem likely to maintain control of the House.

 

What should voters anticipate from a unified Republican leadership across all three major governing bodies?

With a strong majority, Republicans in Congress are expected to quickly confirm Trump’s Cabinet choices and implement substantial policy changes, facing minimal opposition from the Democratic minority.

“This historic election demonstrates that most Americans want secure borders, reduced costs, peace through strength, and a return to common sense,” said House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., on Wednesday, even though the House results haven’t officially declared a Republican victory and Democrats maintain they are still competitive.

 

However, there are no certainties.

Trump’s rapport with his party in the Senate has historically fluctuated, and Senate rules allow the minority party to delay or even block legislation unless there is some level of bipartisan support. Meanwhile, within the House, internal GOP conflicts hindered progress during the past two years due to a very slim majority, which Republicans hope to increase as remaining votes are finalized.

 

Significant developments can occur when one party dominates Washington.

The last Republican trifecta in Washington occurred during Trump’s first term in 2017-2018, when he enacted numerous policies, including a $1.5 trillion tax reduction. Conversely, Democrats enjoyed a trifecta in 2021-2022 under President Joe Biden, which facilitated the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act. During his administration’s total control in 2009-2010, President Barack Obama successfully pushed through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and overhauled the Affordable Care Act.

Here’s a glimpse into what might unfold under complete Republican control of Washington.

Streamlined Cabinet confirmations

 

With Republicans back in command of the Senate, they will oversee the confirmation of the president’s Cabinet and judicial nominees, including any potential Supreme Court vacancies.

 

Cabinet confirmation hearings can be contentious and lengthy, particularly if the nominee is controversial. In rare cases, a president might withdraw their nominee if it’s clear they lack sufficient support for confirmation.

For instance, Trump pulled back his nomination of Patrick Shanahan for Secretary of Defense over domestic violence allegations and withdrew Ronny Jackson’s nomination for Veterans Affairs Secretary due to concerns about his lack of management experience. Likewise, Biden rescinded his nomination of Neera Tanden for the Office of Management and Budget because of her perceived partisanship.

 

Typically, most Cabinet nominations are successful when both the White House and the Senate are aligned with the same party—especially since Democrats eliminated the filibuster to allow for a simple majority approval of presidential picks. Historically, newly elected presidents enjoy a certain flexibility in appointing their initial team when their party controls the Senate.

 

Therefore, could we see Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services? Will Senator Mike Lee from Utah take the role of U.S. Attorney General? Might Larry Kudlow be appointed Treasury Secretary? These are all plausible scenarios with a Senate led by Republicans.

Potential GOP policy achievements

Beyond Trump’s agenda, which includes stricter immigration control and reducing regulations across sectors like housing and energy, Congress will face numerous key issues irrespective of the presidential candidate elected next year.

Numerous aspects of the $1.5

The $1.9 trillion tax reforms brought about by the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, considered one of the Trump administration’s key legislative achievements, are scheduled to conclude in 2025. This situation presents a chance for lawmakers in Washington to revise the federal tax legislation.

 

Negotiations are likely to begin with the Republican agenda at the forefront, including Trump’s commitments to eliminate taxes on gratuities, exclude overtime pay from taxable income, and prolong the tax brackets established in the 2017 legislation.

 

Congress will also face the task of funding the government, which is expected to mirror GOP objectives, such as cutting financial support for federal programs aimed at diversity, equity, and inclusion and reducing budgets for departments like Education.

A significant topic for Congress and the incoming Trump administration will be whether to increase the debt ceiling, which will need to be addressed at the beginning of the next year, as the government risks running out of funds and potentially defaulting on its debt obligations.

A Challenge on Major Commitments

During this election period, Republicans have pledged not to enact a federal ban on abortion, while Democrats have asserted that they would.

 

Now, Republicans might face a significant challenge: With total control over the House, Senate, and White House, will they continue to resist the demands from their evangelical Christian constituents to introduce national restrictions?

 

Research indicates that the majority of Americans remain opposed to a federal abortion ban, including a significant portion of Republicans, with about two-thirds against such measures.

 

Democrats have claimed that Republicans are aiming to abolish the Affordable Care Act, which has gained widespread approval. However, Republicans have countered by stating they do not intend to abolish the ACA but are open to modifying it to enhance cost-effectiveness and coverage.

Additionally, Republicans have committed to preserving the Senate’s filibuster rule, which establishes a threshold of 60 votes, generally requiring the majority party to win over some minority party members in order to pass major legislation.

 

“One of the most rewarding consequences of the Senate shifting to Republican control – the filibuster will remain intact,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., remarked to reporters on Wednesday. The leading candidates to succeed McConnell have also indicated their support for maintaining the filibuster.

Republicans will now be put to the test regarding their commitment, particularly if Democrats unite against their agenda.